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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Josh Ketter‏ @sangfroyd 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Geneva looks practically the same - 0.64% https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3/fulltext … Others are 60-100% higher. i.e. Sweden Doing a secondary sensitivity analysis for AB vs. adjusting for it as a primary median are very different. You did it for fatalities, but not AB, which creates large bias.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @sangfroyd

      Some are indeed higher - as I said, it depends on how IFR was calculated in those papers. We used a standard methodology which was elucidated in the paper for all calculations

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sangfroyd

      As for "large bias", I have no idea what you mean. As I said, the AB issue is in many cases built into the sensitivity assumptions of the ELISA used in most serology programs - it's not necessary to adjust for this again in the analysis as we note

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Josh Ketter‏ @sangfroyd 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      It's not in all ELISA's and is very under-represented if sampled during height of the curve. +AB type & decay rates not adjusted for at all If you plotted your imputed IFR's compared to the median IFR's of those studies, the delta is rather large for the 5 that I checked.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @sangfroyd

      Sure, but describing that as "bias" is a leading statement. I would argue that taking deaths from an ongoing epidemic is "biased" in and of itself And yes, absolutely! One reason why we did not include samples taken during the height of the curve 😉

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sangfroyd

      And, again, decay rate is usually part of sensitivity calculations. We're going around in circles here

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Josh Ketter‏ @sangfroyd 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      That's not correct - decay rate was unknown when the sens & spec were provided They are relative to & dependent on the sampling timeframes against the curves Did you examine this? Many studies actually adjust for these. Yours is one of the few who didn't

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @sangfroyd

      I have no idea what you mean by "were provided", we cited a number of very recent studies on exactly this point. I also don't think you've actually understood the point about test sensitivity here

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Josh Ketter‏ @sangfroyd 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Sens & Spec "Provided by the Manufacturers" I didn't see the source provided in the Appendix or Supp Materials, it may be there, just didn't see it. The point is, whether you're in month 6 and have lost X% AB's or week 3 and haven't dev as much, matters. You didn't adj for it

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @sangfroyd

      We're really going around in circles here. To put it another way - you calculate test sensitivity using PCR +ve cases as your benchmark, then testing serology several months later. Thus, the reduction in ABs is ~already accounted for in test sensitivity calculations~

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 31 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @sangfroyd

      For this not to be the case, you have to assume that there is a fixed cutoff beyond which antibodies decay, which is missed by all sensitivity calculations. Since this is false, it's likely that most of your point is captured in test sensitivity already

      11:02 PM - 31 Aug 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Josh Ketter‏ @sangfroyd 31 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          They decay at different rates over different time periods. By 4 months it's higher than it was at 3 months. By 3 months, it's higher than at 1 month. So using the same sens & spec regardless of time along the decay curve misses a meaningful # of infections.

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