Using our bog-standard Herd Immunity Threshold calculation, which requires 70% of people to become infected, we get just over 3 million deaths required to reach herd immunitypic.twitter.com/UgiZSL8SYO
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That's actually not true. In some cases ours are lower (i.e. Geneva), depends on how they calculated IFR. AB undercount is something of a concern, but as we note it is built into the sensitivity calculations for many tests and therefore in many cases already accounted for
Geneva looks practically the same - 0.64% https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30584-3/fulltext … Others are 60-100% higher. i.e. Sweden Doing a secondary sensitivity analysis for AB vs. adjusting for it as a primary median are very different. You did it for fatalities, but not AB, which creates large bias.
Some are indeed higher - as I said, it depends on how IFR was calculated in those papers. We used a standard methodology which was elucidated in the paper for all calculations
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