Since everyone's talking about herd immunity in the United States at the moment, I thought I'd quickly run some rough calculations of the number of deaths required to get to the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 in the U.S.
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This is, of course, assuming that it is possible to reach herd immunity at all. It is still entirely possible that the immunity to COVID-19 does not last long enough for herd immunity to be a realistic possibility
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When the alternative is for young people to stay indoors forever and never meet anyone or get married...
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Not close to the actual alternative. What if older kids were sent to holiday camps where the intention was to catch the virus, and those sick were sent for medical attention, the remainder returned home when tested negative? It would create some immunity + family protection.
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Honestly outside of the usual election year BS this is a non story here. Testing capacity continues to ramp, vaccines on pace for early next year, etc. Logically why would the strategy change now?
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What if T cells are made of magic and we already reached herd immunity? We were all immune the whole time and it’s just a bad dream?
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This is notwithstanding the chaos that led to early deaths: lockdowns, ventilators, etc.
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How does the estimated IFR for Stockholm for age 70+ at 4.29 stack up with the rest? To me, it looks like a bit too much in the low end, but it would change a bit these calculations. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391be54f5d959ead9131edb771/infection-fatality-rate-covid-19-stockholm-technical-report.pdf …
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Could you please make a Google Sheet with these calculations?
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But people don’t care. They assume they won’t be affected and deaths will happen to ‘someone else’ and they’re happy with that because all they care about is themselves. The ‘others’ will always be people they don’t care about, ethnic minorities, disabled, old, anyone but them.
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Stop protecting us. Stay out of our business
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