Since everyone's talking about herd immunity in the United States at the moment, I thought I'd quickly run some rough calculations of the number of deaths required to get to the herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 in the U.S.
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As I said, these are very back-of-the-envelope calculations, so they're certainly not exact predictions, but it gives you some idea of what we would expect to see if the U.S. does try for herd immunity in terms of deaths
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This is, of course, assuming that it is possible to reach herd immunity at all. It is still entirely possible that the immunity to COVID-19 does not last long enough for herd immunity to be a realistic possibility
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How does Stockholm IFR for the >70 at 4.92 stack up? To me, it looks like a bit too much on the low end. But, that would change these calculations a bit. https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/53c0dc391be54f5d959ead9131edb771/infection-fatality-rate-covid-19-stockholm-technical-report.pdf …
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You'd still need to split it up just like he did because 60-69, 70-79 and 80-89 are very different numbers. Bunching the age groups distorts population stratified IFR impact for the varying age groups. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2026116?query=featured_home …pic.twitter.com/dz3ZKGNvDQ
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