Gideon: You sound out if it, mate. Immunity is exactly what we all need against COVID. If 40% are asymptomatic, that’s great. Then you let loose those with low inflammation and higher Vit D levels to get COVID naturally. They stay home. Heal up. Done. Population has antibodies.https://twitter.com/MarketWatch/status/1298782254827745280 …
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Replying to @DrBenLynch
My goodness what a cruel take. 1) less than 5% of popl has been exposed. To get to herd immunity, you'd be up around 60%. So deaths in millions. 2) herd immunity doesnt work that way. Diseases find vulnerable people. Congregate care would still be tinder.
@GidMK - comments?2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @drbrignall @DrBenLynch
Even with all those factors - vit D, some level of t-cells etc - the virus is this bad. Death rate varies with age, but is very high
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Even in those under 45 years old?
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Death rate is obv much lower in younger people, but it isn't zero. And, as we've seen in my LHJ, if cases go up in college kids, it will show up in the nursing homes in two weeks.
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Our paper on IFR by age goes into this. At age 40, the death rate is 0.07%, which is pretty high already!https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4 …
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Is that taking into account pre existing health? So, say a healthy 37 year old man, He has a high chance of dying if he catches covid?
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This is not differentiating, because the data we used in the metaregression was not sufficient to distinguish comorbidities. However, we did find that age explained ~90% of the variance, so the contribution of pre-existing health is likely relatively small
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What you’re saying is if you’re in good health, it doesn’t really matter?
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Nah, I'm saying pre-existing health is important, but we couldn't control for it in our analysis. What we did find was that age explained a lot of the variance in death rates, which makes it likely that pre-existing health isn't the main driver of death
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