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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020

    Ok, am I going crazy or is this table nonsensical #epitwitter Leftmost column is the RELATIVE RISK increase associated with a 100mg increase in caffeine consumption Rightmost column appears to make absolutely no sense whatsoeverpic.twitter.com/Z54oVHfDs7

    4:36 PM - 25 Aug 2020
    • 1 Retweet
    • 7 Likes
    • Alaa Saleh Rasheed Ian 𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic James Pitt Alfred Flyer Sarah Joseph Booster Terrik epibot
    6 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020

        If I'm reading correctly, the author multiplied the RR by the TOTAL NUMBER OF EVENTS to get the number of events attributable to caffeine consumption i.e. drinking 200mg caffeine per day is 28% increased risk, 1,000,000 miscarriages, therefore 280k caused by caffeine

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020

        There's actually a formula to do this properly, the population attributable fraction, but what the author has done here is...assume that 100% of the population who have had miscarriages drink 200mg of coffee/day???? That seems, uh, unlikely (it's 2-3 espressos)

        1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020

        If I plug the numbers into the standard PAF calculation, with 20% of the population drinking this much caffeine a day (arbitrary but reasonable) PAF = 0.2(1-(1/1.28)) = 0.044 = 44,000 miscarriages/million attributable to caffeine

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        Show this thread
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Jon F  👨🏻‍⚕️‏ @j0nnyb0y1 25 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I can’t even... column ii assumes a 2x dose of caffeine doubles the risk of adverse events. I can’t believe that. Just can’t.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020
        Replying to @j0nnyb0y1

        Nah that's actually the most reasonable part of the table. If the relative risk increase is 14% per 100mg of caffeine then 200mg of caffeine should caused a 28% increased risk

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2.  💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology"  🍩 Musgrave‏ @ianfmusgrave 25 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Is that the new paper on caffeine and pregnancy (only a few months after the review finding modest consumption safe)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020
        Replying to @ianfmusgrave

        Yeppppppppp Which review was that?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. 𒊓𒅂𒁓𒐗𒐕𒐗 Steve the skeptic‏ @sib313 25 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Worse, as far as i can tell the paper never quotes the absolute risks at all. How an any sense be made of that?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 25 Aug 2020
        Replying to @sib313

        Yes it's very strange. The table seems to be mathematically and theoretically incomprehensible

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. The_Skeptical_Scientist ⚗️ 💉 🔬 🔭 ⚖️‏ @TheSkepticalSc2 26 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Cc @sTeamTraen any idea?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Nick Brown‏ @sTeamTraen 26 Aug 2020
        Replying to @TheSkepticalSc2 @GidMK

        100mg per how often? It's about the amount of caffeine in a single coffee, I think. Why would the risk (only) exactly double with double the dose? Etc etc

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Show replies

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