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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Andy Slavitt  🇺🇸 💉

      Worth noting that even this isn't the whole story They were 35% more likely to be alive COMPARED TO PEOPLE WHO RECEIVED PLASMA >3 DAYS of diagnosis of COVID-19 This is not a minor pointhttps://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1298034992107397121 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Andy Slavitt  🇺🇸 💉Verified account @ASlavitt
      Trump said "mortality is reduced by 35%." Not at all true. A tiny fraction benefitted. When there are high levels of antibodies in the plasma, within 3 days of diagnosis, the patient wasn't on a ventilator & was under 80, they were 35% more likely to be alive after a month.
      Show this thread
      3 replies 9 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

      Let's think about the comparison group for a moment What can comparing people who received plasma early rather than late actually tell us?

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

      Firstly, it can't tell us if convalescent plasma works. These people were not randomized, and they are manifestly inadequate as a control to determine if CP has any benefit over treatment as usual

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

      It's pretty simple - if you give EVERYONE in your study the same treatment, you can't make any inferences about whether it works or not We have to wait for less inherently biased research to be published to have any hope of answering that question

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

      So what CAN these figures tell us? Well, they can potentially point to whether giving CP early is better than giving it late

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

      Now, I don't think the published research is adequate to actually make that decision. There are too many confounders, and they aren't well controlled for in the analysis of CP early vs CP late But it's potentially possible that this study COULD tell us that

      4:47 PM - 24 Aug 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 3 Likes
      • Harry Hong 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave
      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

          If nothing else, it could just be that people who receive CP early are less sick than those who get it late because they didn't delay coming into hospital and so die less anyway Too many confounders to know anything for sure

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 24 Aug 2020

          So IF convalescent plasma works for COVID-19 - which we still don't know - and IF it's more effective than care as usual, then it MAY be better to give the treatment early as opposed to late That's all the published research can really say!

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        4. End of conversation

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