This is truly remarkable. A bit too early to call, but it increasingly looks like NSW has contained a large COVID-19 outbreak with testing and contract tracing of epic proportions Amazing workhttps://twitter.com/Kaubo/status/1296613890151845889 …
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I'll hijack a bit and say some things about how the superspreading nature of SARS-CoV-2 may have helped...
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Evidence suggests that a small number of people cause many infections, while a large number cause none. This means that it is harder for such a disease to establish, but if it's lucky enough, it tends to do so with an accelerated start.
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How many false positives would you expect in 32k tests? Carl Heneghan said in UK now if you test +ve, given low prevalence, 50/50 chance you actually are. If that was correct, would we expect higher +ve rate than 1 in 32k whatever the population sampled?
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