Because it somehow keeps coming up, here's my new piece on herd immunity and COVID-19, and why it's still not the silver bullet some people wish forhttps://medium.com/@gidmk/herd-immunity-for-covid-19-is-still-a-terrible-idea-a7ce15354c43 …
-
Show this thread
-
The basic message is this: very little has changed Yes, there are some mathematical models that suggest some interesting things Yes, t-cells are cool No, this probably doesn't mean as much as some people want it to
1 reply 4 retweets 12 likesShow this thread -
It's ~plausible~ that some areas with infection rates in the 15-20% range might experience a sort of immunity, where the epidemic slows substantially, but if these communities change over time then they'll be right where they started off
2 replies 1 retweet 7 likesShow this thread -
Similarly, places that have reduced their level of spread through both social distancing interventions AND some level of community immunity - like Sweden - still need to maintain the social distancing to keep control of their epidemic
1 reply 2 retweets 12 likesShow this thread -
The best way out of this mess remains, it seems, keeping up our social distancing measures, and waiting for a vaccine to reduce the risk of COVID-19 to manageable levels
4 replies 6 retweets 26 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @GidMK
Please explain what this means: “but if these communities change over time then they'll be right where they started off”
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Sure thing. The heterogeneity explanation assumes that this heterogeneity is relatively fixed - i.e. that people who spread disease more are the same over time. But if people move around within the community, change jobs etc, then the heterogeneity has minimal impact
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.