The basic message is this: very little has changed Yes, there are some mathematical models that suggest some interesting things Yes, t-cells are cool No, this probably doesn't mean as much as some people want it to
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It's ~plausible~ that some areas with infection rates in the 15-20% range might experience a sort of immunity, where the epidemic slows substantially, but if these communities change over time then they'll be right where they started off
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Similarly, places that have reduced their level of spread through both social distancing interventions AND some level of community immunity - like Sweden - still need to maintain the social distancing to keep control of their epidemic
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The best way out of this mess remains, it seems, keeping up our social distancing measures, and waiting for a vaccine to reduce the risk of COVID-19 to manageable levels
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Re: "Worldwide, cases have also plateaued a month ago, and deaths have now started to bend down. So it’s not just Sweden and the US that have herd immunity but the whole world in general." Nope. You conflated R0 with Rt https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1291897393441574914 …pic.twitter.com/UATHcfyr3r
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I'm wondering whether the corona sceptics will realize that they can't simultaneously rely on seroprevalence studies to argue that HIT~20%, and reject a 0.6-1% infection fatality rate estimated from the same seroprevalence studies.
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Doubt it. It's not about the science, it's about the belief imo
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