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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Stephanie M. Lee‏Verified account @stephaniemlee 17 Aug 2020

      could there be COVID herd immunity within subpopulations, even zip codes? @apoorva_nyc unpacks some new models that offer food for thought, but, she notes, "should not be used to set policy."https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html …

      3 replies 6 retweets 7 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Caroline Chen‏Verified account @CarolineYLChen 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @stephaniemlee @apoorva_nyc

      Caroline Chen Retweeted Dr Ellie Murray, ScD

      don't you run into this issue w/ the idea of zip code level herd immunity though? people move around. communities aren't locked in a bubble.https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1293696186541637632?s=20 …

      Caroline Chen added,

      Dr Ellie Murray, ScDVerified account @EpiEllie
      PSA: This is a total misunderstanding of “herd immunity”. It is not a fixed state! Imagine u need 20% immune to prevent a new outbreak (ie for herd immunity). In ur town of 100, 20 got sick. Looking good. Then, ur cousin comes to town & a baby is born. And BAM! You’re below 20%. https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1293313918891433986 …
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
    3. Apoorva Mandavilli‏Verified account @apoorva_nyc 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @CarolineYLChen @stephaniemlee

      good point, you probably do. But unless there were big movements in or out of the Orthodox community, for eg, I don't think it would make a big impact. they def still will have outbreaks in any case, just smaller

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Apoorva Mandavilli‏Verified account @apoorva_nyc 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @apoorva_nyc @CarolineYLChen @stephaniemlee

      i thought the point @MarcusBlimi made about the few cases even now was a good one--even in such a closed community, there's inevitably still mingling with others...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Caroline Chen‏Verified account @CarolineYLChen 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @apoorva_nyc @stephaniemlee @MarcusBlimi

      Yeah, I think my fear is that even if herd immunity is theoretically achievable in a small enclosed community, that it'll lead to complacent behaviors (like Blimi said!) that can have harmful consequences once just a few ppl leave the bubble.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 17 Aug 2020
      Replying to @CarolineYLChen @apoorva_nyc and

      I'm also not sure that herd immunity is really the right term here. If behaviour change can cause large sustained outbreaks, then it's not really "immunity"

      1:54 PM - 17 Aug 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • James Pitt Craig Kaplan
      0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes

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