could there be COVID herd immunity within subpopulations, even zip codes? @apoorva_nyc unpacks some new models that offer food for thought, but, she notes, "should not be used to set policy."https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html …
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Replying to @stephaniemlee @apoorva_nyc
Caroline Chen Retweeted Dr Ellie Murray, ScD
don't you run into this issue w/ the idea of zip code level herd immunity though? people move around. communities aren't locked in a bubble.https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1293696186541637632?s=20 …
Caroline Chen added,
Dr Ellie Murray, ScDVerified account @EpiElliePSA: This is a total misunderstanding of “herd immunity”. It is not a fixed state! Imagine u need 20% immune to prevent a new outbreak (ie for herd immunity). In ur town of 100, 20 got sick. Looking good. Then, ur cousin comes to town & a baby is born. And BAM! You’re below 20%. https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1293313918891433986 …Show this thread2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes -
Replying to @CarolineYLChen @stephaniemlee
good point, you probably do. But unless there were big movements in or out of the Orthodox community, for eg, I don't think it would make a big impact. they def still will have outbreaks in any case, just smaller
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i thought the point
@MarcusBlimi made about the few cases even now was a good one--even in such a closed community, there's inevitably still mingling with others...1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Yeah, I think my fear is that even if herd immunity is theoretically achievable in a small enclosed community, that it'll lead to complacent behaviors (like Blimi said!) that can have harmful consequences once just a few ppl leave the bubble.
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I'm also not sure that herd immunity is really the right term here. If behaviour change can cause large sustained outbreaks, then it's not really "immunity"
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