ICYMI - updated study looking at infection-fatality rate of COVID-19 by age, now with me as a co-author! The rate increases exponentially: 4 in 10,000 aged 40 70 in 10,000 aged 60 890 in 10,000 aged 80 3,680 in 10,000 aged 85+https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3 …
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Replying to @GidMK @load_dependent
How is this surprising? This is crude mortality over age for all 20y birth-cohorts since year 1800 in Sweden. Observe how they are all linear on the logarithmic scale above the age of 40.pic.twitter.com/fAHizGJAj9
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Re: "How is this surprising?" 1) It's new information in terms of giving a *quantitative* estimate of age-specific IFR incorporating data from multiple regions. 2) Not all pathogens have this particular pattern of age-specific mortality. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1279569150713769990 …pic.twitter.com/DmnV9bUOBk
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1: Yes, it is a lot of data. No, it is not surprising. 2: That is almost entirely driven by age-specific infection rates. Please, give one example where the infection mortality rate is not log-linear over age.
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Many diseases. Influenza death rates highest for the young, decrease up till middle age then increase. Pertussis is devastating for infants, then almost 0% death until 65+. This pattern is mirrored in many 'childhood' diseases, i.e. measles which is deadly <5yo....
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Replying to @GidMK @mhultstrom and
...then relatively flat thereafter. Many diseases have remarkably flat death rates by age until >65, or for v young children. Other infectious diseases such as rabies, lyssavirus, and Hendra are almost universally fatal regardless of age, while for others impaired immune systems
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Are more important. I actually can't think of a single other infectious disease with this pattern of IFR off the top of my head. Even things like TB are often more about treatment than age
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