Updated systematic review and meta-analysis of age-specific IFR for COVID-19! Now includes more than a dozen samples from across the world (and yours truly as a co-author
) 1/nhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3 …
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2/n This paper is a tremendous work by Andrew Levin and team, who've put an enormous amount of effort into answering a question that
@LeaMerone and I were left with after our IFR meta-analysis: how much does age impact this figure?1 reply 6 retweets 23 likesShow this thread -
3/n The primary result shows: a whole lot. In fact, the risk of death from COVID-19 increases exponentially by age!pic.twitter.com/41REukgKxc
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4/n This means that the risk rises sharply to a very scary number even by middle age: 1 in 10,000 at age 20 70 in 10,000 at age 50 890 in 10,000 at age 70 3,680 in 10,000 at age 85
pic.twitter.com/idX9f09njf
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5/n We also investigate in this paper what this means for age as an explainer of the deadliness of COVID-19 in different places In short - it explains a lot!pic.twitter.com/sk9rI25McC
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Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
6/n Excluding Italy, which appears to be a very substantial outlier, the predicted IFRs based on age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 for 16 countries line up almost perfectly with the true IFRs (R^2=0.88)https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1294752134915747840?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
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7/n What this means is that we can say with some certainty that the differences in death rate between many places may come down to how society interacts with older people
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8/n There are still many unexplained variances here, and it's certainly not all about age, but age definitely has a huge impact
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9/n Age-specific IFR meta-analysis, might be of interest
@CT_Bergstrom@MackayIM@SaskiaPopescu@BillHanage@stephaniemlee5 replies 3 retweets 16 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom and
Are there any similarly excellent (or even just decent) analyses of morbidity post infection that you recommend?
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I'm working on two at the moment but it is really challenging!
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Replying to @GidMK @CT_Bergstrom and
I shall pay attention in all the usual places! Thanks for letting me know.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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