Updated systematic review and meta-analysis of age-specific IFR for COVID-19! Now includes more than a dozen samples from across the world (and yours truly as a co-author
) 1/nhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3 …
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2/n This paper is a tremendous work by Andrew Levin and team, who've put an enormous amount of effort into answering a question that
@LeaMerone and I were left with after our IFR meta-analysis: how much does age impact this figure?1 reply 6 retweets 23 likesShow this thread -
3/n The primary result shows: a whole lot. In fact, the risk of death from COVID-19 increases exponentially by age!pic.twitter.com/41REukgKxc
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4/n This means that the risk rises sharply to a very scary number even by middle age: 1 in 10,000 at age 20 70 in 10,000 at age 50 890 in 10,000 at age 70 3,680 in 10,000 at age 85
pic.twitter.com/idX9f09njf
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5/n We also investigate in this paper what this means for age as an explainer of the deadliness of COVID-19 in different places In short - it explains a lot!pic.twitter.com/sk9rI25McC
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Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd
6/n Excluding Italy, which appears to be a very substantial outlier, the predicted IFRs based on age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 for 16 countries line up almost perfectly with the true IFRs (R^2=0.88)https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1294752134915747840?s=20 …
Health Nerd added,
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Replying to @GidMK
Is Excess mortality included in the estimates or only deaths from official agencies?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Primarily official deaths, because for most places excess fatalities are not calculable or not public
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