2/n This paper is a tremendous work by Andrew Levin and team, who've put an enormous amount of effort into answering a question that @LeaMerone and I were left with after our IFR meta-analysis: how much does age impact this figure?
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3/n The primary result shows: a whole lot. In fact, the risk of death from COVID-19 increases exponentially by age!pic.twitter.com/41REukgKxc
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4/n This means that the risk rises sharply to a very scary number even by middle age: 1 in 10,000 at age 20 70 in 10,000 at age 50 890 in 10,000 at age 70 3,680 in 10,000 at age 85
pic.twitter.com/idX9f09njf
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5/n We also investigate in this paper what this means for age as an explainer of the deadliness of COVID-19 in different places In short - it explains a lot!pic.twitter.com/sk9rI25McC
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6/n Excluding Italy, which appears to be a very substantial outlier, the predicted IFRs based on age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 for 16 countries line up almost perfectly with the true IFRs (R^2=0.88)https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1294752134915747840?s=20 …
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7/n What this means is that we can say with some certainty that the differences in death rate between many places may come down to how society interacts with older people
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8/n There are still many unexplained variances here, and it's certainly not all about age, but age definitely has a huge impact
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9/n Age-specific IFR meta-analysis, might be of interest
@CT_Bergstrom@MackayIM@SaskiaPopescu@BillHanage@stephaniemleeShow this thread
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TBH 'more than a dozen' isn't many, given the amount of data. Were there problems with standardisation?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The longer we're living with Covid-19, do sero studies get less accurate regarding IFR if they don't look for Covid-19 specific t-cells?
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I'm thinking back to the Indiana study (I believe) where the second sero study found fewer people having/had Covid-19
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