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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

    Updated systematic review and meta-analysis of age-specific IFR for COVID-19! Now includes more than a dozen samples from across the world (and yours truly as a co-author 😉) 1/nhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v3 …

    2:45 PM - 15 Aug 2020
    • 91 Retweets
    • 188 Likes
    • Big Ike Kylie Quinn Monash University Central Clinical School Pete Husky 😷 Vax2theMax Simon Brežan MD Mark Ratchford #HelloMyNameIsPhilip @Messagist Christos Chamos
    14 replies 91 retweets 188 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        2/n This paper is a tremendous work by Andrew Levin and team, who've put an enormous amount of effort into answering a question that @LeaMerone and I were left with after our IFR meta-analysis: how much does age impact this figure?

        1 reply 6 retweets 23 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        3/n The primary result shows: a whole lot. In fact, the risk of death from COVID-19 increases exponentially by age!pic.twitter.com/41REukgKxc

        3 replies 35 retweets 65 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        4/n This means that the risk rises sharply to a very scary number even by middle age: 1 in 10,000 at age 20 70 in 10,000 at age 50 890 in 10,000 at age 70 3,680 in 10,000 at age 85 😰pic.twitter.com/idX9f09njf

        5 replies 42 retweets 95 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        5/n We also investigate in this paper what this means for age as an explainer of the deadliness of COVID-19 in different places In short - it explains a lot!pic.twitter.com/sk9rI25McC

        2 replies 15 retweets 35 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        Health Nerd Retweeted Health Nerd

        6/n Excluding Italy, which appears to be a very substantial outlier, the predicted IFRs based on age-specific prevalence of COVID-19 for 16 countries line up almost perfectly with the true IFRs (R^2=0.88)https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1294752134915747840?s=20 …

        Health Nerd added,

        Health NerdVerified account @GidMK
        5/n We also investigate in this paper what this means for age as an explainer of the deadliness of COVID-19 in different places In short - it explains a lot! pic.twitter.com/sk9rI25McC
        Show this thread
        6 replies 9 retweets 24 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        7/n What this means is that we can say with some certainty that the differences in death rate between many places may come down to how society interacts with older people

        4 replies 21 retweets 52 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        8/n There are still many unexplained variances here, and it's certainly not all about age, but age definitely has a huge impact

        3 replies 4 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 15 Aug 2020

        9/n Age-specific IFR meta-analysis, might be of interest @CT_Bergstrom @MackayIM @SaskiaPopescu @BillHanage @stephaniemlee

        5 replies 3 retweets 16 likes
        Show this thread
      10. End of conversation
      1. Amy Dunne‏ @FanchetAldo 15 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        TBH 'more than a dozen' isn't many, given the amount of data. Were there problems with standardisation?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Jason K‏ @nice_shot_jk 15 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        The longer we're living with Covid-19, do sero studies get less accurate regarding IFR if they don't look for Covid-19 specific t-cells?

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Jason K‏ @nice_shot_jk 15 Aug 2020
        Replying to @nice_shot_jk @GidMK

        I'm thinking back to the Indiana study (I believe) where the second sero study found fewer people having/had Covid-19

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies

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