I agree as well. In the first round of it, I believe we were missing a lot (my wife had a nasty cold that knocked her out for several days and couldn't get tested). This time around testing is much easier (I had a sore throat and got tested). So we missing much less.
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Thais os the same for mostrar escondido sabes um Europe.
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Bear in mind the multiplier applied to cases that have been picked up through tracing shouldn’t be applied at all. Apply it to the “unknown source” cases if you really must. Maybe would mean ~10 a day undetected. Which matches your estimate
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The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates (from the IFR) 43% of symptomatic cases detected in total https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …
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Care to crunch the numbers on the UK? Have been struck by the very different deaths/cases ratios in France and UK for a while.
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What about in the US? I think 10x is a little high even for the US, but this clever little app assumes it.https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
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It was the CDC’s estimate
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Has this changed since the early stages of the outbreak? ISTR you were talking about 5-8x at that stage, or am I remembering incorrectly?
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We are talking about the second wave. IFR depends on the demographic affected. If few elderly have so far been infected, fatality rates will be low. In any case NSW has had 3 deaths recently. With a IFR of 0.75% that predicts 400 cases and deaths lag cases.
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You can assess this by looking at the age demographics of cases. To get to 2x you could need under 5% of cases over 65 and 100 cases per fatality, or thereabouts.
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I've looked at the numbers. Case fatality of 5 cases per fatality in NSW, 14% of cases over age 65, you should indeed have about 10 infections per confirmed case.
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