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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Greg Dore

    Agreed. Based on the number of deaths in Aus, and the presumptive IFR from infections by age, I doubt that we have missed more than ~50% of cases (i.e. max 2x the reported number of infections) and probably lesshttps://twitter.com/GregDore2/status/1294083779674349568 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Greg Dore @GregDore2
    Sorry, but don’t buy the estimate of x10 detected cases “out there” undetected. Large pool undetected cases (even if many asymptomatic) will lead to symptomatic cases, & broader community spread. ⁦@sophiescott2⁩ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-14/nsw-coronavirus-cases-likely-higher-than-reported-figures/12553690 …
    11:55 PM - 13 Aug 2020
    • 10 Retweets
    • 38 Likes
    • Dr. Anthony Burnetti Snowy Pseudo Science Oz Grrl Ian medical Sue Moffitt Peter van Heusden Matthew Brignall, ND Lucy Carroll
    11 replies 10 retweets 38 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Dr. Joel C. Miller‏ @joel_c_miller 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        I agree as well. In the first round of it, I believe we were missing a lot (my wife had a nasty cold that knocked her out for several days and couldn't get tested). This time around testing is much easier (I had a sore throat and got tested). So we missing much less.

        1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      3. Marcio S Bittencourt‏Verified account @MBittencourtMD 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @joel_c_miller @GidMK

        Thais os the same for mostrar escondido sabes um Europe.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. qpp‏ @inmybackyardpls 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Bear in mind the multiplier applied to cases that have been picked up through tracing shouldn’t be applied at all. Apply it to the “unknown source” cases if you really must. Maybe would mean ~10 a day undetected. Which matches your estimate

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Amy Dunne‏ @FanchetAldo 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates (from the IFR) 43% of symptomatic cases detected in total https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/global_cfr_estimates.html …

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Boris Barbour‏ @BorisBarbour 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Care to crunch the numbers on the UK? Have been struck by the very different deaths/cases ratios in France and UK for a while.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Carb⌬n Based Eukary⌬te  🐝‏ @carbonbaby 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        What about in the US? I think 10x is a little high even for the US, but this clever little app assumes it.https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/ 

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. alfonzo‏ @alfonzoPgr 16 Aug 2020
        Replying to @carbonbaby @GidMK

        It was the CDC’s estimate

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Aidan‏ @allsumnull 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Has this changed since the early stages of the outbreak? ISTR you were talking about 5-8x at that stage, or am I remembering incorrectly?

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Bruce Tabor‏ @BruceTabor8 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        We are talking about the second wave. IFR depends on the demographic affected. If few elderly have so far been infected, fatality rates will be low. In any case NSW has had 3 deaths recently. With a IFR of 0.75% that predicts 400 cases and deaths lag cases.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Dave Blake, PhD‏ @_stah 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        You can assess this by looking at the age demographics of cases. To get to 2x you could need under 5% of cases over 65 and 100 cases per fatality, or thereabouts.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. Dave Blake, PhD‏ @_stah 14 Aug 2020
        Replying to @_stah @GidMK

        I've looked at the numbers. Case fatality of 5 cases per fatality in NSW, 14% of cases over age 65, you should indeed have about 10 infections per confirmed case.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation

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