The Mayo Clinic convalescent plasma for COVID-19 study is such a depressing waste of time it is frightening After treating THIRTY-FIVE THOUSAND patients, we still have no idea if the treatment workshttps://www.statnews.com/2020/08/13/large-study-suggests-convalescent-plasma-can-help-treat-covid-19-with-caveats …
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There are literally hundreds of reasons that some people might have gotten plasma early rather than late, in particular that they were less sick so they could tolerate the treatment This makes the study a bit worthless in terms of causal interpretation
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Thing is, the numbers are something of an indictment in and of themselves With 35,000 people to treat, it would be TRIVIAL to randomize 10% and do a proper trial
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This study could've paved the way for a successful treatment. Instead, we are now months into a pandemic, with billions spent on these patients, and still have no idea if what Mayo did was worthwhile or a waste of time
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Worse, it's entirely possible that the treatment is harmful, but without an appropriate control group we can only hope that it isn't Very, very depressing
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Also worth noting that for the main finding - i.e. people getting plasma early died less than those who got it late - THEY DIDN'T EVEN ADJUST FOR AGE AND SEX That's just...woeful. Maybe people who get plasma later are just older???
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I mean, it's an observational study where they're comparing two groups, getting headlines across the world, but they haven't adjusted that estimate for ANYTHING including things that might make a huge difference
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Have to say, the more I think about it the worse this study looks All these authors and no one thought to adjust for age? Or gender? Or one of the many biases that are likely to be present here?pic.twitter.com/z0UKMVKqTb
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End of conversation
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Seems like one more casualty of our response to this. People cut corners and soon they've taken off all the good their work might have done.
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"expanded access program" - in other words, non-drs pushing medical folks to provide snake oil to scared people - to hell with how we've learned to do science and medicine. Great publicity if it works, people mean nothing to them if it doesn't. No evidence of long-term immunity.
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