@matthewherper hits the nail on the head here - despite the impressive number of patients, the results are essentially uninterpretablepic.twitter.com/wB0MPHmKTD
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@matthewherper hits the nail on the head here - despite the impressive number of patients, the results are essentially uninterpretablepic.twitter.com/wB0MPHmKTD
There are literally hundreds of reasons that some people might have gotten plasma early rather than late, in particular that they were less sick so they could tolerate the treatment This makes the study a bit worthless in terms of causal interpretation
Thing is, the numbers are something of an indictment in and of themselves With 35,000 people to treat, it would be TRIVIAL to randomize 10% and do a proper trial
This study could've paved the way for a successful treatment. Instead, we are now months into a pandemic, with billions spent on these patients, and still have no idea if what Mayo did was worthwhile or a waste of time
Worse, it's entirely possible that the treatment is harmful, but without an appropriate control group we can only hope that it isn't Very, very depressing
Also worth noting that for the main finding - i.e. people getting plasma early died less than those who got it late - THEY DIDN'T EVEN ADJUST FOR AGE AND SEX That's just...woeful. Maybe people who get plasma later are just older???
I mean, it's an observational study where they're comparing two groups, getting headlines across the world, but they haven't adjusted that estimate for ANYTHING including things that might make a huge difference
Have to say, the more I think about it the worse this study looks All these authors and no one thought to adjust for age? Or gender? Or one of the many biases that are likely to be present here?pic.twitter.com/z0UKMVKqTb
I'm as baffled as you are. I can't see a reasonable explanation for not making this into a randomized study, it's not hard nor expensive
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