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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Dr. Ali Nouri

      Hurray, another study that *proves* that masks work by choosing an arbitrary date and running some linear regressions Guess it'll be published in JAMA soon!https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1294097529143951362 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Dr. Ali NouriVerified account @AliNouriPhD
      Universal masking works. This study compared COVID19 cases in the Massachusetts healthcare system which adopted masking on March 26, to the rest of the state which didn't. Healthcare system cases began to drop while the rest of the state continued to grow toward peak... pic.twitter.com/YsTf6A4YYx
      Show this thread
      8 replies 6 retweets 60 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

      Because I'm certain this will get tons of media attention - it's bad research done on masks - here's a very simple explanation of why it's nonsense

      1 reply 1 retweet 8 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

      This is the main results graph. You see that before masks (red) the slope was increasing, during masks (green) the slope started decreasing, and then after it decrease and finally leveled offpic.twitter.com/Er73GWIrSF

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

      But actually, the date chosen for the start of the study period WASN'T the first day of masks It was 5 days AFTER the start of universal masking regulations, because, well, why not? They could've allowed 1 day, 10 days, it's entirely arbitrarypic.twitter.com/neu7iMogAd

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

      And this poses a HUGE problem I quickly recreated the 7-day avg graph in Excel. Here's what the 'intervention' period looks like with that simple linear regression line if you move the start date to the day when universal masking STARTEDpic.twitter.com/0Z0kNJjSat

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

      The effect doesn't entirely disappear, but it's far less noticeable and certainly not statistically significant Moving the start date even one or two days almost completely changes the result! Not great

      9:21 PM - 13 Aug 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

          Even worse, almost the entire relationship is basically based on just two days This is a problem!pic.twitter.com/rS6YWcsbfs

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

          Remove those two days, and the graph becomes flatter still, with an almost imperceptible gradient downwards that is almost certainly meaninglesspic.twitter.com/Rpbj1k3QDx

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

          And remember, these days are based on when people REPORTED, not technically on when they got the disease! In other words, the entire relationship could just be down to reporting error

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 13 Aug 2020

          This isn't the only issue with the study, but it does show you how it fails even some of the more basic sense-checks (removing outliers, shifting study dates), making it mostly useless as evidence for/against masks

          1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
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        6. End of conversation

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