This is the best write up of the whole T cells and herd immunity thing that I've seen, and somehow it still misses a central point: If COVID-19 was this bad WITH EXISTING IMMUNITY then the immunity doesn't matter all that muchhttps://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1292650588543434752 …
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But on top of this, we have the fact that 2.5 is a static figure and the observed R0 is really modelled somewhere between 2.2-4, which means that the HIT could be 25-45% in this scenario
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Ok, that makes sense! The remaining 30% (let's say) in a NYC situ. Is it a solid assumption that those additional cases would be highly unlikely to become infected in a similarly large/fast wave, overwhelming the hospitals a 2nd time? (Due to awareness/behavioral adjustments).
End of conversation
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