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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Eric Topol

      This is the best write up of the whole T cells and herd immunity thing that I've seen, and somehow it still misses a central point: If COVID-19 was this bad WITH EXISTING IMMUNITY then the immunity doesn't matter all that muchhttps://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1292650588543434752 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Eric TopolVerified account @EricTopol
      All we've been learning about pre-existing T cells that react to #SARSCoV2 and the concept of "effective herd immunity" https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/08/reasons-for-covid-19-optimism-on-t-cells-and-herd-immunity.html … by @dwallacewells @NYMag w/ @florian_krammer @youyanggu @BallouxFrancois @KSHartnett
      Show this thread
      4 replies 21 retweets 52 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020

      It's a really simple point but somehow keeps getting missed. If COVID-19 can kill 1% of the population when 50% already have some immunity, it changes almost nothing about the public health response

      6 replies 4 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Ritchie Trilnack‏ @trilnack 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Changes nothing about the response - what about the length? Wouldn't it shorten the overall duration of the battle significantly or no? And if not why not? Thanks for helping explain the potential significance. First truly potentially positive development I've seen since January.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @trilnack

      Not really. If 50% of people have some immunity it might go a long way to explaining asymptomatic spread, but we're still in a situation where an unmitigated pandemic can cause New York or Lombardy situations regardless

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Ritchie Trilnack‏ @trilnack 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      Gotcha. Would it at the same time rule out another similar repeat spike in those two locations, specifically, for example? Is that the main takeaway? That, if true, it's herd immunity (vs. ongoing behavioral adaptations) which are preventing a resurgence in hardest hit areas?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @trilnack

      Not necessarily. If 50% of the population has some immunity, you have to basically double the observed R0 to get the true value, which then has a much higher cutoff

      9:11 PM - 10 Aug 2020
      • 3 Likes
      • Arch-Physicist 😷 #ZeroCovid Mikaela Olsen Ritchie Trilnack
      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Ritchie Trilnack‏ @trilnack 10 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I don't grasp that explanation. I want to, but I don't. Not yet, anyway. I'll read up and get to a point where it makes sense. Thank you for the time and answers!!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
          Replying to @trilnack

          Pretty simple really - we observe an R0 of 2.5 i.e. each person passes the disease on to 2.5 on avg. However, we find out that 50% of people are already immune - that means that the true R0 is actually (x)*0.5 = 2.5 Multiply out, you get R0=5

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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