This is the best write up of the whole T cells and herd immunity thing that I've seen, and somehow it still misses a central point: If COVID-19 was this bad WITH EXISTING IMMUNITY then the immunity doesn't matter all that muchhttps://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1292650588543434752 …
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If the herd immunity threshold is based on an observed R0, but 50% of people are already immune to the disease, the true R0 doubles and the herd immunity threshold goes up significantly
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Like, yes the herd immunity threshold might respond to heterogeneity, and yes this is complex and hard to understand, but bottom line - if the pandemic is this bad WITH pre-existing immunity then the immunity didn't help much did it?
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But it’s not killing 1% of the population is it?
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Changes nothing about the response - what about the length? Wouldn't it shorten the overall duration of the battle significantly or no? And if not why not? Thanks for helping explain the potential significance. First truly potentially positive development I've seen since January.
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Not really. If 50% of people have some immunity it might go a long way to explaining asymptomatic spread, but we're still in a situation where an unmitigated pandemic can cause New York or Lombardy situations regardless
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Isn't it 50% of 1% max, now? (still a lot - just trying to get the logic right. The numbers - especially ratios - are getting difficult to keep track,now that we envision a significant pop. heterogeneity).
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But is it killing 1% of the population?? Belgium who has fared worst (other than San Merino) is at 850/mil = 0.08% with the epidemic currently almost flat at 3 deaths per day. Or am I missing something?pic.twitter.com/wtLqQMiGzL
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The mortality rate is not the point (IFR on the Diamond Princess was 1.3%). The primary risk is unchecked spread. Here's the study's author himself explaining how "pre-existing immunity" or "crossreactive T-cell memory" affects the odds. cc
@AtomsksSanakanhttps://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1293344524731691008?s=20 …
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0.1 % not 1 percent so it's only 1/10 as bad as you think or are you trying to scare people deliberately.
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