It's a really simple point but somehow keeps getting missed. If COVID-19 can kill 1% of the population when 50% already have some immunity, it changes almost nothing about the public health response
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If the herd immunity threshold is based on an observed R0, but 50% of people are already immune to the disease, the true R0 doubles and the herd immunity threshold goes up significantly
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Like, yes the herd immunity threshold might respond to heterogeneity, and yes this is complex and hard to understand, but bottom line - if the pandemic is this bad WITH pre-existing immunity then the immunity didn't help much did it?
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There's a lot of speculation here. I hope the general reader gets that
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Completely. Carry on.
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To nitpick the low effectiveness of the annual flu vaccine is not related to the effective ness of the flu vaccine for the strain of flu it's meant for.
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This will break mr Tegnells hart.
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