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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology 10 Aug 2020

      The study speculates on the possible risk of fecal-oral transmission to explain the high spread rate of SARS-COV-2 within this rural setting. Problems with health service availability were mentioned as possible explanations for the high death rate. 6/npic.twitter.com/pBmNEXOwZt

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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    2. COVID Impact‏ @CovidSerology 10 Aug 2020

      @DiseaseEcology @MBittencourtMD @isabelrodbar @WesPegden @GidMK @federicolois @AdamJKucharski You might be interested in the data presented here although sample size dynamics is low due to the population of the study area.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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    3. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @CovidSerology @DiseaseEcology and

      Those numbers are way too high. Could be the raw unmitigated IFR? Definitely, not what you find where you have medicine around. I haven't seen such numbers since the early 6 weeks. That's 2160 per 100000. Something is off.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @CovidSerology and

      2.16% is all cause mortality not just covid related. The covid related rate was 1.57%. The most likely reason it seems high is that the population was part of an ongoing study predating the pandemic. Thus few deaths were missed. Many reports of massive undercounting elsewhere.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @OYCar @CovidSerology and

      Still, 1.57% for <60 is unseen almost everywhere. Not even the CFR in UK has such numbers, and if at all recent news is that they have been shown to be overcounting, not undercounting.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @OYCar and

      An IFR of 1.57 for <60 would have implied to see (rough numbers) like 15000 deaths under 60 in NYC assuming just 20% infected. Doesn't add up.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @OYCar and

      There are places in the world with very convincing IFRs of 1.3-1.7%. In fact, the recent very large and well-done Italian study of >60,000 people implies an IFR of ~1.7% It has a lot to do with the age groups impacted

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @federicolois and

      Without a detailed age profile hard to know how extreme these data are. But internal migration for work is quite common in LMICs, which might mean that poor rural communities are disproportionately older than the national average.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @OYCar @federicolois and

      Could also be that rural LMIC communities have less ability to cocoon the elderly from infection, lots of potential reasons. Either way, it's not beyond the bounds of plausibility by any means

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    10. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @OYCar and

      Exactly, not outside the bounds of plausibility. The problem is that number is bound to other variables among those age distribution, access to health, etc. IFR of 3% is a normal occurrence in >75yo segments everywhere.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
      Replying to @federicolois @OYCar and

      That's not actually true. There are numerous examples of IFR>3% in >75yos. Best current evidence suggests IFR follows an exponential curve by age

      3:40 PM - 10 Aug 2020
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 10 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @OYCar and

          That's what I meant.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Federico Andres Lois‏ @federicolois 10 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @OYCar and

          But for <60yos I haven't seen many cases where IFR goes too much higher than 1%, because as you noted it appears to follow an exponential curve.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 10 Aug 2020
          Replying to @federicolois @OYCar and

          Yes that's reasonable

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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