17/n But forgetting that, this is a classic example of the ecological fallacy You CANNOT assume that country-level obesity rates apply to the people who got COVID-19 - if you don't check that this is true, whatever you produce is basically nonsensicalhttps://medium.com/@gidmk/why-you-might-be-wrong-about-covid-19-the-ecological-fallacy-e8a47a030902 …
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18/n On top of this, the outcome measure is terrible. There is no attempt to clarify whether the reported deaths from Our World In Data are correct for the country, simply the assumption that Algeria and France have comparable death reporting systems
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19/n The ecological fallacy is at play in terms of death rates as well - deaths/million is a meaningless measure if you don't take infections into account!
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Replying to @c19analysis
It's not a limitation, it's a fundamental flaw. India, for example, is still increasing rapidly in terms of cases and deaths. If you only look at deaths/million, you completely ignore the nature of the epidemic itself
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Replying to @c19analysis
The seroprevalence data for India, thus far, is extremely problematic (very biased samples). But that was just one example - Algeria is increasing in deaths and cases. Comparing them to France, which is stable, on deaths/mil makes no sense
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Replying to @GidMK @c19analysis
Also, a very simple question that HAS to be answered for the analysis to mean anything: what proportion of people in each country actually got HCQ? Simple question. Without it, the HCQ vs non-HCQ groups mean nothing
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Replying to @c19analysis
Lol, no you didn't. You cannot answer it, which is yet another fundamental issue. If you don't know whether someone in Algeria was more likely to get HCQ than France - and CAN PUT A NUMBER TO THAT LIKELIHOOD - then the treatment groups are meaningless
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And As I said in the thread, any treatment ~could~ be useful, but we now have numerous large trials demonstrating that HCQ is unlikely to be of any benefit
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Replying to @c19analysis
No it doesn't. Collating self-selected studies on a website says nothing whatsoever about science. A numerically large number of bad studies is as meaningless as a numerically small number unfortunately
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End of conversation
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