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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Aug 2020

      14/n Without any description of the analysis whatsoever, we cannot trust a single number that is portrayed on this site, because the stats could be simply incorrect Impossible to know!

      2 replies 3 retweets 45 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Aug 2020

      15/n The authors then report using "controls" to adjust the estimates, but these controls are again incredibly misleading For example, country-level obesity ratespic.twitter.com/HGHc9md58T

      1 reply 3 retweets 36 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Aug 2020

      16/n The obesity rates are referenced to the CIA world factbook Problem is, this data was last entered in 2016, and often is cited to sources up to a decade old So it's really very out of date!

      2 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Aug 2020

      17/n But forgetting that, this is a classic example of the ecological fallacy You CANNOT assume that country-level obesity rates apply to the people who got COVID-19 - if you don't check that this is true, whatever you produce is basically nonsensicalhttps://medium.com/@gidmk/why-you-might-be-wrong-about-covid-19-the-ecological-fallacy-e8a47a030902 …

      2 replies 5 retweets 53 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Aug 2020

      18/n On top of this, the outcome measure is terrible. There is no attempt to clarify whether the reported deaths from Our World In Data are correct for the country, simply the assumption that Algeria and France have comparable death reporting systems

      3 replies 3 retweets 39 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 8 Aug 2020

      19/n The ecological fallacy is at play in terms of death rates as well - deaths/million is a meaningless measure if you don't take infections into account!

      3 replies 3 retweets 39 likes
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    7. This Tweet is unavailable.
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Aug 2020
      Replying to @c19analysis

      It's not a limitation, it's a fundamental flaw. India, for example, is still increasing rapidly in terms of cases and deaths. If you only look at deaths/million, you completely ignore the nature of the epidemic itself

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. This Tweet is unavailable.
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Aug 2020
      Replying to @c19analysis

      The seroprevalence data for India, thus far, is extremely problematic (very biased samples). But that was just one example - Algeria is increasing in deaths and cases. Comparing them to France, which is stable, on deaths/mil makes no sense

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK @c19analysis

      Also, a very simple question that HAS to be answered for the analysis to mean anything: what proportion of people in each country actually got HCQ? Simple question. Without it, the HCQ vs non-HCQ groups mean nothing 🤷‍♂️

      8:51 PM - 9 Aug 2020
      • 1 Like
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      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 9 Aug 2020
          Replying to @c19analysis

          Lol, no you didn't. You cannot answer it, which is yet another fundamental issue. If you don't know whether someone in Algeria was more likely to get HCQ than France - and CAN PUT A NUMBER TO THAT LIKELIHOOD - then the treatment groups are meaningless

          3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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