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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      While I derived the above relationship independently, I have since become aware of similar work by @ellis2013nz, @_stah, and @FLCovid. Of course, this relationship isn't perfect. Recent positivity rates may skew high because some states do not report repeated negative results.

      3 replies 3 retweets 54 likes
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    2. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      The other way I estimate true prevalence is by using the http://covid19-projections.com  model, which only uses reported deaths. Even though the data source is exclusive, the resulting shape of new infections is similar and shows a higher peak of ~450k infections/day in July.pic.twitter.com/VDTFFCBAkm

      1 reply 2 retweets 33 likes
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    3. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      There are 13 states with >10% test positivity. 10-15% - UT, KS, AR, GA, MO, TX, SC 15-20% - ID, AZ, FL, NV, AL 26% - MS It's very unfortunate that we are still seeing >10% positivity 5 months into the pandemic. As many have iterated, we need a coordinated national testing plan.pic.twitter.com/WyIxGSbTo6

      5 replies 24 retweets 99 likes
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    4. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      2) Lower infection fatality rate (IFR) After we have an estimate of the true infections, we can compute the implied infection fatality rate by factoring in deaths from approximately 4 weeks later. We can do this for the US nationally, or on a state-by-state basis.

      2 replies 1 retweet 35 likes
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    5. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      The case fatality rate and implied infection fatality rate have all decreased significantly over the past few months (US is currently at ~0.25% IIFR). I believe the largest contributor is lower median age of infection. There's also some elements of improved treatments.pic.twitter.com/uVN11fGrgZ

      12 replies 27 retweets 124 likes
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    6. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      Using CDC's COVIDView data, one can see that the proportion of confirmed cases for individuals above age 65 dropped significantly from April to June. Once we factor in test positivity rate to get true prevalence, the difference is even more pronounced. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/07312020/commercial-labs.html …pic.twitter.com/vyzFGO5RxN

      12 replies 6 retweets 56 likes
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    7. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      Since the IFR of those age 65+ is 20-50x higher than those under age 50, it's no surprise that we've seen a steep reduction in the overall IFR across the US. This is further helped by improved treatments and earlier detection. One caution is that this trend is slowly reversing.

      8 replies 10 retweets 81 likes
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    8. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 5 Aug 2020

      3) Lower herd immunity threshold (HIT) Infections are now declining in almost all heavily-impacted states, despite no clear policy interventions. Estimating the HIT based on the current effective reproduction numbers results in a ~10-35% effective HIT. (Formula: HIT = 1-1/Rt)

      13 replies 30 retweets 124 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      In this context, I would say that HIT is the wrong term to use. HIT implies (long-lasting) immunity, whereas this is a potentially transient result of behaviour shortly after reopening. In many places, these behaviours have not lasted and thus Rt climbs

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    10. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 6 Aug 2020
      Replying to @GidMK

      What would be a better term to use, in your opinion?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020
      Replying to @youyanggu

      Honestly, I'm not sure. Immunity implies, well, immunity, which this isn't exactly. HIT is really only used traditionally in the vaccination context, although I know everyone wants it to be applicable to COVID-19

      9:02 PM - 6 Aug 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • blah Gayle Early LIndenArden Jessica Malaty Rivera, MS Wendy Wolfe
      3 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. Youyang Gu‏ @youyanggu 6 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I see, thank you for your insights!

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          Perhaps Epidemic Reduction Threshold or similar? If the measures are transient - i.e. no long-lasting immunity - then this conveys the fact that cases stop spreading but it may also reverse if behaviour changes

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. sys‏ @ksusys 6 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          why not just HITt to pair with Rt?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Gayle Early‏ @GayleMaui 8 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @youyanggu

          I agree. The public is beginning to get a rudimentary understanding of herd immunity, and hearing that the threshold is 10-35% may result in misunderstanding.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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