While I derived the above relationship independently, I have since become aware of similar work by @ellis2013nz, @_stah, and @FLCovid.
Of course, this relationship isn't perfect. Recent positivity rates may skew high because some states do not report repeated negative results.
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I see, thank you for your insights!
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Perhaps Epidemic Reduction Threshold or similar? If the measures are transient - i.e. no long-lasting immunity - then this conveys the fact that cases stop spreading but it may also reverse if behaviour changes
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why not just HITt to pair with Rt?
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I agree. The public is beginning to get a rudimentary understanding of herd immunity, and hearing that the threshold is 10-35% may result in misunderstanding.
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