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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      9/n Now, these range from completely absurd to somewhat reasonable. The infectious period of COVID-19, for example, is the source of much debate and 7 days is a not unreasonable estimate to use

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      10/n The idea that masks reduce transmission by 82% on a flight is, however, totally without evidence. The reference is to a meta-analysis that looked primarily at studies of SARS and MERS and population cohorts over long periods of timepic.twitter.com/HYNkx2KfV6

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      11/n We have, and I cannot stress this enough, ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how much masks may reduce transmission on planes. It depends on how well they're used, how often, what masks, etc etc etc etc

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      12/n Maybe 82% is the right number. But we have no way of knowing and thus as an assumption it's disastrous to the model If the number is instead 10%, the risk of transmission is 5x higher!

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      13/n This situation is mirrored in other assumptions. The paper assumes that people on planes have half the risk of COVID-19 than everyone else, which is not referenced and seems to me wildly implausiblepic.twitter.com/Veqev0RWQ2

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      14/n If we instead assume that people on planes are MORE likely to have COVID-19 - because they travel more! - suddenly the risk of transmission quadruples

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      15/n If we recalculate the numbers changing just these two assumptions, the risk goes from a 1 in 4,300 for flying with middle seats filled to a 1 in 430 risk So, 10x riskier

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      16/n If you were to repeat this process for every assumption - remember, there are over a dozen - you'd find that a realistic bound might be that the risk goes from 1 in 40 to 1 in 4,700 In other words: an ENORMOUS range

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      17/n Now, to be clear, I actually don't think that the risk of getting COVID-19 while flying is 1 in 40, or even necessarily 1 in 4,700. I think that this risk is incredibly hard to quantify, because flying isn't just spending 2 hours on a plane

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      18/n It's going to an airport, sitting in a lounge, queuing up for the bathroom, getting on the plane, picking up luggage etc etc etc

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      19/n Now the risk to you of sitting near someone who has COVID-19 on a plane, based on contact tracing case series, is not 0, but it's hard to know exactly how big it is Unfortunately, this study tells us practically nothing about that number

      7:08 PM - 6 Aug 2020
      • 7 Likes
      • Lekshmi Santhosh, MD MAEd Teresa Chandler Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 Erica B, MBA, is vaccinated! Dolce 🧸⃤ Guffy
      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          20/ Even worse, there is really no way from this research whether keeping the middle seat empty reduces risk or how much it might do that All of this is basically assumed 🤷‍♂️

          6 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
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