5/n The issue is that these eventual numbers - 1/310, 18% etc - are based on an endless litany of assumptions that range from somewhat reasonable to totally unjustified
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16/n If you were to repeat this process for every assumption - remember, there are over a dozen - you'd find that a realistic bound might be that the risk goes from 1 in 40 to 1 in 4,700 In other words: an ENORMOUS range
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17/n Now, to be clear, I actually don't think that the risk of getting COVID-19 while flying is 1 in 40, or even necessarily 1 in 4,700. I think that this risk is incredibly hard to quantify, because flying isn't just spending 2 hours on a plane
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18/n It's going to an airport, sitting in a lounge, queuing up for the bathroom, getting on the plane, picking up luggage etc etc etc
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19/n Now the risk to you of sitting near someone who has COVID-19 on a plane, based on contact tracing case series, is not 0, but it's hard to know exactly how big it is Unfortunately, this study tells us practically nothing about that number
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20/ Even worse, there is really no way from this research whether keeping the middle seat empty reduces risk or how much it might do that All of this is basically assumed
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End of conversation
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