4/n Simple, right? The author concludes - after a dozen pages of explanation - that these figures are 1/310, 18%, and 40.2/22.4% respectively Thus, either a 1/4300 risk or 1/7700 risk depending on how you fill your seatspic.twitter.com/lvaESoke0D
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15/n If we recalculate the numbers changing just these two assumptions, the risk goes from a 1 in 4,300 for flying with middle seats filled to a 1 in 430 risk So, 10x riskier
16/n If you were to repeat this process for every assumption - remember, there are over a dozen - you'd find that a realistic bound might be that the risk goes from 1 in 40 to 1 in 4,700 In other words: an ENORMOUS range
17/n Now, to be clear, I actually don't think that the risk of getting COVID-19 while flying is 1 in 40, or even necessarily 1 in 4,700. I think that this risk is incredibly hard to quantify, because flying isn't just spending 2 hours on a plane
18/n It's going to an airport, sitting in a lounge, queuing up for the bathroom, getting on the plane, picking up luggage etc etc etc
19/n Now the risk to you of sitting near someone who has COVID-19 on a plane, based on contact tracing case series, is not 0, but it's hard to know exactly how big it is Unfortunately, this study tells us practically nothing about that number
20/ Even worse, there is really no way from this research whether keeping the middle seat empty reduces risk or how much it might do that
All of this is basically assumed 
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