3/n Essentially, the author took: - the avg number of people who have COVID-19 in the US - the risk of passing on the disease on a flight - the impact of masks on this risk And multiplied these numbers togetherpic.twitter.com/5BEt4DkeQq
You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
14/n If we instead assume that people on planes are MORE likely to have COVID-19 - because they travel more! - suddenly the risk of transmission quadruples
15/n If we recalculate the numbers changing just these two assumptions, the risk goes from a 1 in 4,300 for flying with middle seats filled to a 1 in 430 risk So, 10x riskier
16/n If you were to repeat this process for every assumption - remember, there are over a dozen - you'd find that a realistic bound might be that the risk goes from 1 in 40 to 1 in 4,700 In other words: an ENORMOUS range
17/n Now, to be clear, I actually don't think that the risk of getting COVID-19 while flying is 1 in 40, or even necessarily 1 in 4,700. I think that this risk is incredibly hard to quantify, because flying isn't just spending 2 hours on a plane
18/n It's going to an airport, sitting in a lounge, queuing up for the bathroom, getting on the plane, picking up luggage etc etc etc
19/n Now the risk to you of sitting near someone who has COVID-19 on a plane, based on contact tracing case series, is not 0, but it's hard to know exactly how big it is Unfortunately, this study tells us practically nothing about that number
20/ Even worse, there is really no way from this research whether keeping the middle seat empty reduces risk or how much it might do that
All of this is basically assumed 
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.