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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Bloomberg Opinion

      Today's example of truly atrocious COVID-19 science These numbers are, as far as I can tell, almost entirely nonsensical and meaningless 🧵🧵🧵 1/nhttps://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1291293195825971201 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Bloomberg OpinionVerified account @bopinion
      On a full 2-hour flight, one scientist has estimated that about 1 in 4300 passengers will pick up Covid-19, on average. If airlines leave the middle seat empty, only about 1 in 7700 will catch it https://trib.al/LASFM2Y 
      Show this thread
      3 replies 28 retweets 91 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      2/n This story- and the massive media hubbub about flying safety - is based on a study that went up on Medrxiv this week Despite being really long, the study is pretty simple https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.02.20143826v3 …pic.twitter.com/Qi8n2vJDft

      1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

      3/n Essentially, the author took: - the avg number of people who have COVID-19 in the US - the risk of passing on the disease on a flight - the impact of masks on this risk And multiplied these numbers togetherpic.twitter.com/5BEt4DkeQq

      7:08 PM - 6 Aug 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 6 Likes
      • Erik Fichtner Harry Hong Dolce Brendo RN 🧸⃤ Guffy Peter Williams Peter Collignon
      1 reply 2 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          4/n Simple, right? The author concludes - after a dozen pages of explanation - that these figures are 1/310, 18%, and 40.2/22.4% respectively Thus, either a 1/4300 risk or 1/7700 risk depending on how you fill your seatspic.twitter.com/lvaESoke0D

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          5/n The issue is that these eventual numbers - 1/310, 18% etc - are based on an endless litany of assumptions that range from somewhat reasonable to totally unjustified

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          6/n Some examples: - Masks reduce infection risk in plane scenarios by 82% - People on planes have half the risk of COVID-19 as everyone else - Baseline infection risk is 13% - The June midpoint of Texas and NY states are representative of the US

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          7/n (cont.) - Seat backs are 3/4 as effective at blocking transmission as a full plexiglass screen - Passengers in front of/behind pose 1/4 of the risk as passengers next to the traveller - Max 1 person infected per flight

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          8/n (cont.) - The number of infectious people can be obtained by averaging new cases over 1 week for a state - Only 25% of infectious people on planes are infectious while they are travelling - COVID-19 cases are infectious for 7 days

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          9/n Now, these range from completely absurd to somewhat reasonable. The infectious period of COVID-19, for example, is the source of much debate and 7 days is a not unreasonable estimate to use

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          10/n The idea that masks reduce transmission by 82% on a flight is, however, totally without evidence. The reference is to a meta-analysis that looked primarily at studies of SARS and MERS and population cohorts over long periods of timepic.twitter.com/HYNkx2KfV6

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          11/n We have, and I cannot stress this enough, ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA how much masks may reduce transmission on planes. It depends on how well they're used, how often, what masks, etc etc etc etc

          2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          12/n Maybe 82% is the right number. But we have no way of knowing and thus as an assumption it's disastrous to the model If the number is instead 10%, the risk of transmission is 5x higher!

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          13/n This situation is mirrored in other assumptions. The paper assumes that people on planes have half the risk of COVID-19 than everyone else, which is not referenced and seems to me wildly implausiblepic.twitter.com/Veqev0RWQ2

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          14/n If we instead assume that people on planes are MORE likely to have COVID-19 - because they travel more! - suddenly the risk of transmission quadruples

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          15/n If we recalculate the numbers changing just these two assumptions, the risk goes from a 1 in 4,300 for flying with middle seats filled to a 1 in 430 risk So, 10x riskier

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          16/n If you were to repeat this process for every assumption - remember, there are over a dozen - you'd find that a realistic bound might be that the risk goes from 1 in 40 to 1 in 4,700 In other words: an ENORMOUS range

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
          Show this thread
        15. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          17/n Now, to be clear, I actually don't think that the risk of getting COVID-19 while flying is 1 in 40, or even necessarily 1 in 4,700. I think that this risk is incredibly hard to quantify, because flying isn't just spending 2 hours on a plane

          1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
          Show this thread
        16. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          18/n It's going to an airport, sitting in a lounge, queuing up for the bathroom, getting on the plane, picking up luggage etc etc etc

          1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
          Show this thread
        17. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          19/n Now the risk to you of sitting near someone who has COVID-19 on a plane, based on contact tracing case series, is not 0, but it's hard to know exactly how big it is Unfortunately, this study tells us practically nothing about that number

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        18. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 6 Aug 2020

          20/ Even worse, there is really no way from this research whether keeping the middle seat empty reduces risk or how much it might do that All of this is basically assumed 🤷‍♂️

          6 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
          Show this thread
        19. End of conversation

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