Lol the daily mail took my two vague tweets about IFRs from two studies yesterday and made it into an articlehttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8595307/How-deadly-Covid-19-Italian-study-finds-mortality-rate-7-4-Qatari-study-says-0-01.html …
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Ok, solved the Italian question. If you stratify the infection rate by age, and apply the age-stratified IFR you get a similar number. Basically, in this town, older people got infected A LOT more than usual
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If you assume the deaths were distributed as per previous research, there would be 1 death under 50 years, 5 deaths 50-70, and ~65 deaths 70+ Overall IFR in this case would be ~1.5%
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This could be wrong, of course, but the overall IFR appears consistent with the age breakdown of the town and of Italy as a whole
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This is from the istat report yesterday? How do they get to 7.4%? 35,181/(0.025*60.36e6) = 2.3% and I don’t think anyone thinks 70% of covid-19 deaths went uncounted.
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The 7.4% IFR is this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20138875v1 … Not the Italian study showing 2.5% seroprevalence.
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Overwhelmed hospitals leading to a lot of people not receiving care even for other reasons than COVID19? Antibody decay over time? More lethal strain?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Could it be simply that truly uncontrolled outbreaks (Wuhan, Italy, Iran) that *really* overrun healthcare capacity see drastically and lasting higher fatality data?
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Not having warning to stop nursing home visits and tell the elderly to at least be more careful than usual has to have some effect.
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