Lol the daily mail took my two vague tweets about IFRs from two studies yesterday and made it into an articlehttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8595307/How-deadly-Covid-19-Italian-study-finds-mortality-rate-7-4-Qatari-study-says-0-01.html …
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I can't find a specific issue with the Italian IFR, but it's more than triple the next highest estimate and so I'm a bit skeptical
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Ok, solved the Italian question. If you stratify the infection rate by age, and apply the age-stratified IFR you get a similar number. Basically, in this town, older people got infected A LOT more than usual
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If you assume the deaths were distributed as per previous research, there would be 1 death under 50 years, 5 deaths 50-70, and ~65 deaths 70+ Overall IFR in this case would be ~1.5%
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This could be wrong, of course, but the overall IFR appears consistent with the age breakdown of the town and of Italy as a whole
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End of conversation
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