As little as 40% of people with someone positive living with them developed antibodies. 16% of people with a known positive contact outside the family, 12% for health workers with a positive patient.
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Proportion of asymptomatics was 27%.pic.twitter.com/R1PpknDNO4
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About 50% of positives developed fever. 37% lost sense of taste/smell. (But only ~25% of people losing sense of smell/taste were positive!)
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Caveats: 1) the original sample size was far larger (150 000) but lots of people did not respond. There is a suspicion most of the people who refused did so because of fear of being quarantined. This would lower the estimated proportion of infected people.
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At the same time, I guess people who had symptoms might be more likely to accept if interested in knowing whether they had it, so the two effects *might* even cancel out.
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2) People living in care homes were excluded from the survey, while they made up probably a good proportion of the overall deaths. I could not find any data on deaths by settings. 3) IFR estimates I provided above are based on reported deaths, excess deaths are ~40% higher.
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4) I did not estimate variation around IFR,which might be high. 5) It took quite some time to take the samples, almost two months. But prevalence was supposed to be low at that time (end of May to mid July).
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Methodological aspects: Two-stage stratified sampling. Startification by region, sex, age, profession. Target N=150k Achieved N=64k IPW used to address missing data (I think, not overly clear to me)
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Taggig few people who might be interested:
@AVG_Joseph96,@GidMK,@CT_Bergstrom3 replies 2 retweets 44 likesShow this thread -
Oh, and of course, congrats to people at
@istat_en and@crocerossa for completing such an important study in such difficult circumstances.4 replies 2 retweets 108 likesShow this thread
Did the report mention the sampling methodology? Was it a random selection?
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Yes, two stage sampling. They sampled 2000 municipalities (out of ~8000) stratified by region and then sampled individuals within municipalities stratifying by age, sector and gender.
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