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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      As little as 40% of people with someone positive living with them developed antibodies. 16% of people with a known positive contact outside the family, 12% for health workers with a positive patient.

      3 replies 27 retweets 135 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      Proportion of asymptomatics was 27%.pic.twitter.com/R1PpknDNO4

      4 replies 48 retweets 156 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      About 50% of positives developed fever. 37% lost sense of taste/smell. (But only ~25% of people losing sense of smell/taste were positive!)

      6 replies 30 retweets 159 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      Caveats: 1) the original sample size was far larger (150 000) but lots of people did not respond. There is a suspicion most of the people who refused did so because of fear of being quarantined. This would lower the estimated proportion of infected people.

      4 replies 19 retweets 169 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      At the same time, I guess people who had symptoms might be more likely to accept if interested in knowing whether they had it, so the two effects *might* even cancel out.

      1 reply 4 retweets 95 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      2) People living in care homes were excluded from the survey, while they made up probably a good proportion of the overall deaths. I could not find any data on deaths by settings. 3) IFR estimates I provided above are based on reported deaths, excess deaths are ~40% higher.

      2 replies 10 retweets 109 likes
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    7. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      4) I did not estimate variation around IFR,which might be high. 5) It took quite some time to take the samples, almost two months. But prevalence was supposed to be low at that time (end of May to mid July).

      2 replies 5 retweets 66 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      Methodological aspects: Two-stage stratified sampling. Startification by region, sex, age, profession. Target N=150k Achieved N=64k IPW used to address missing data (I think, not overly clear to me)

      1 reply 4 retweets 63 likes
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    9. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      Taggig few people who might be interested: @AVG_Joseph96, @GidMK, @CT_Bergstrom

      3 replies 2 retweets 44 likes
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    10. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 3 Aug 2020

      Oh, and of course, congrats to people at @istat_en and @crocerossa for completing such an important study in such difficult circumstances.

      4 replies 2 retweets 108 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 4 Aug 2020
      Replying to @stats_q @istat_en @crocerossa

      Did the report mention the sampling methodology? Was it a random selection?

      8:47 PM - 4 Aug 2020
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Matteo Quartagno‏ @stats_q 5 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @istat_en @crocerossa

          Yes, two stage sampling. They sampled 2000 municipalities (out of ~8000) stratified by region and then sampled individuals within municipalities stratifying by age, sector and gender.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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