The exponential increase is pretty substantial, and worth noting Every 10 years adds an order of magnitude of risk This means even relatively young people (50s) are in quite a bit of danger
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For reference, the risk of death from going skydiving is very roughly 1 in 100,000 That means that, for the avg 50 year old, COVID-19 is as risky as going skydiving every day for a year and a half
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https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154112v1 … Perhaps half the risk? "of 38 participants with infection, only 20 (52.6%) were antibody positive. Interpretation: Several antibody tests conducted six weeks after an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 did not detect all previously PCR-positive tested individuals."
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So for under 49s it's the same or less than the flu? Or is that wrong?
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That will likely be wrong because to compare you need to similarly stratify the flu number not take what most people do- an overall flu CFR. You need stratified flu IFRs.
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Could you provide a link to the other 4? I used one I found from Spain to do calculations to see if Tennessee's very low death rate is reasonable due to age variance (it is, I think). Want to make sure I used right data.
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Here is ifr estimates age stratified I used... 0-9 .000035 10-19 .000039 20-29 .00015 30-39 .00031 40-49 .00064 50-59 .00213 60-69 .00718 70-79 .0238 >80 .0952
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Any comment on so called long haulers i.e. those who have survived but just can't shake it off, even in several months time.
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Not quite so sure, based on that study.....https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1290632180897665026?s=19 …
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