8/n Two very interesting points: 1. Mask mandates for public spaces had negligible impact on the spread of COVID-19 2. Stay at home orders similarly didn't have much additional benefit
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9/n On the other hand, as the authors note, closing schools and universities appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the spread of COVID-19
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10/n The authors then estimate the interventions required to bring Reff down to 1: - close schools - close universities - close some businesses - limit gatherings to 10 peoplepic.twitter.com/fNpfSmoGuB
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11/n Some strengths of this trial are that they had multiple people rating the interventions and timing, the sample size was reasonably large, and they used a relatively objective outcome (Reff) to track efficacy
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12/n Limitations are a bit more numerous, but two in particular I wanted to highlight: - Hard to dissociate some interventions - Some interventions not includedpic.twitter.com/eov5fAzfpc
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13/n In particular, they found that while mask regulations appeared to have minimal benefit, it was hard to dissociate mask mandates from other interventions, so this might not be indicative of a lack of efficacy
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14/n Indeed, many places only implemented these mandates after other regulations, so it could be that the MARGINAL (i.e. additional) benefit of masks on top of other social distancing regulations was small, but that by themselves the benefits could be largerpic.twitter.com/fMMJ5Bwize
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15/n Now, as ever it is hard to infer causal conclusions from studies like this (correlation=/=causation) BUT This is a careful, well-thought-out attempt to define the benefits associated with each intervention
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16/n For example, I'd say a reasonable conclusion is that the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders on top of other interventions is probably pretty small Conversely, the benefit associated with closing universities is probably pretty big
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Replying to @GidMK
I don't get how stay at home can be neglegtable.? It's total isolation.
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Think marginal benefit here. So stay-at-home ON TOP OF everything else is small. No place mandated stay-at-home without lots of other measures first
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Replying to @magnusgus @GidMK
Seems hard to imagine what "stay at home only" not implying other mandates would mean - eg bars would open but with no customers, as these would be mandated to stay-at-home? I would argue the marginal difference between [set of mandates] [same+s-a-h.] is the number you want
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