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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      9/n On the other hand, as the authors note, closing schools and universities appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the spread of COVID-19

      2 replies 11 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      10/n The authors then estimate the interventions required to bring Reff down to 1: - close schools - close universities - close some businesses - limit gatherings to 10 peoplepic.twitter.com/fNpfSmoGuB

      1 reply 17 retweets 41 likes
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    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      11/n Some strengths of this trial are that they had multiple people rating the interventions and timing, the sample size was reasonably large, and they used a relatively objective outcome (Reff) to track efficacy

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      12/n Limitations are a bit more numerous, but two in particular I wanted to highlight: - Hard to dissociate some interventions - Some interventions not includedpic.twitter.com/eov5fAzfpc

      1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      13/n In particular, they found that while mask regulations appeared to have minimal benefit, it was hard to dissociate mask mandates from other interventions, so this might not be indicative of a lack of efficacy

      3 replies 3 retweets 32 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      14/n Indeed, many places only implemented these mandates after other regulations, so it could be that the MARGINAL (i.e. additional) benefit of masks on top of other social distancing regulations was small, but that by themselves the benefits could be largerpic.twitter.com/fMMJ5Bwize

      2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      15/n Now, as ever it is hard to infer causal conclusions from studies like this (correlation=/=causation) BUT This is a careful, well-thought-out attempt to define the benefits associated with each intervention

      1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes
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    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      16/n For example, I'd say a reasonable conclusion is that the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders on top of other interventions is probably pretty small Conversely, the benefit associated with closing universities is probably pretty big

      3 replies 3 retweets 31 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      17/n I should also note that I am not an expert in Bayesian statistical methods, so I might've missed something important in terms of limitations of the models used

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      18/n Another worthwhile point is that I think that this paper is pretty good, but as with everything I could be wrong Point out any errors I've missed!

      4 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Aug 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

      19/n Thread worth reading on some more limitations of the studyhttps://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1290364813755863041?s=20 …

      Health Nerd added,

      A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
      What interventions are needed to stop #COVID19 epidemics? New paper on this. Wish I had time now to explain in detail why this paper & others are deeply flawed. Hope to do lengthy thread but will need to be very brief here today. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1290129568649498624 …
      Show this thread
      2:12 PM - 3 Aug 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 4 Likes
      • Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 💧 Ian "Department of Diseasology" 🍩 Musgrave (((Herid Fel))) Loretta KristanPable A Marm Kilpatrick
      3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Dr Elly Howse‏ @ellyhowse 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          This reminds me of the challenge disentangling different tobacco control measures & impact on smoking rates. Taxation, advertising restrictions, plain packaging, mass media campaigns - all powerful together & difficult to separate effects out individually.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Dr Elly Howse‏ @ellyhowse 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @ellyhowse @GidMK

          So picking or choose one or two isn’t going to get you reduced smoking rates - we’ve seen what happens when countries do this. You need to implement & sustain a whole suite of interventions over time.

          1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Gordon Shotwell‏ @gshotwell 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          It's pretty hard to evaluate things like mask wearing if you're not even trying to measure compliance. Also https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/17/the-point-here-is-not-the-face-masks-its-the-impossibility-of-assumption-free-causal-inference-when-the-different-treatments-are-entangled-in-this-way/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. Michael Till‏ @mickytill 23 Sep 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          The thing that strikes me with this study is if the order of things were changed would the results seen be different. Shutting schools and unis earlier would that have impacted Covid cases? If mask wearing came in much earlier would that impact results. Good Summary 👍🏻!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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