Always fascinating to watch people discuss risks like this in the abstract, but is Adam offering himself and his family up for low, low 1 in 20 (or 1 in 700) risk?https://twitter.com/Adam_Creighton/status/1290139992027623424 …
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I probably know a lot more about Sweden. They have very weak restrictions (events limited, no masks, self-responsibility), that's what all anti-lockdowners want! The deaths are mainly caused by unrelated reasons (no masks in ECC, nurse fluctuation), and now at 6k they're through.
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It's epidemiologists who I saw make stupid sweden claims. Ridiculous case and death predictions, saying we're all "naive" immune-wise, extrapolating IFRs without age and health adjustment. But the best will always be "but Sweden has such a low POPULATION DENSITY, can't compare!"
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Last - (I assume you block disagreeing people) - how in god's name could almost every single expert miss this overdispersion factor until end of may? extremely relevant parameter was not even mentioned once (few exceptions), SIR-Models do not use it. Attack rates did not match R0
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