Always fascinating to watch people discuss risks like this in the abstract, but is Adam offering himself and his family up for low, low 1 in 20 (or 1 in 700) risk?https://twitter.com/Adam_Creighton/status/1290139992027623424 …
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May I also suggest - subdividing that 20 to 49 group? I'm not interested in my risk averaged with a bunch of almost teenagers. - providing info on the probability of long-term disability by age group as well?
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Great minds..! And do I read that there were only two deaths in that group... and the youngest overall was 31. I’m trying to figure out how one derives any meaningful numbers from that?!?!
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I'd also consider the 60% of symptomatic patients with myocardial inflammation even after infection resolves, including people with milder disease who were never hospitalised. All those reports of ongoing breathlessness - this is one reason why. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916 …
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And also name the 3 others who will suffer devastating lung and vascular damage.
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not convinced someone so callous like Creighton has 20 friends
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I have 2 words for Adam: Long Covid. Death is not the only outcome Also see: https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/07/28/nisreen-a-alwan-what-exactly-is-mild-covid-19/ …
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What you believe about the purpose and meaning of life and death are very critical to this discussion.
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Oh he’s at this one too? I had tagged you in a thread where someone else was using the same argument. What I couldn’t understand from the actual letter is how they derived any numbers for <20 if that population had zero deaths ?!?
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Oh they derived a plausible interval then took the midpoint. Given their sample size, impossible to exclude the risk for that age group, so they gave a reasonable estimate
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