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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      8/n Two very interesting points: 1. Mask mandates for public spaces had negligible impact on the spread of COVID-19 2. Stay at home orders similarly didn't have much additional benefit

      5 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      9/n On the other hand, as the authors note, closing schools and universities appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the spread of COVID-19

      2 replies 11 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      10/n The authors then estimate the interventions required to bring Reff down to 1: - close schools - close universities - close some businesses - limit gatherings to 10 peoplepic.twitter.com/fNpfSmoGuB

      1 reply 17 retweets 41 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      11/n Some strengths of this trial are that they had multiple people rating the interventions and timing, the sample size was reasonably large, and they used a relatively objective outcome (Reff) to track efficacy

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      12/n Limitations are a bit more numerous, but two in particular I wanted to highlight: - Hard to dissociate some interventions - Some interventions not includedpic.twitter.com/eov5fAzfpc

      1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      13/n In particular, they found that while mask regulations appeared to have minimal benefit, it was hard to dissociate mask mandates from other interventions, so this might not be indicative of a lack of efficacy

      3 replies 3 retweets 32 likes
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    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      14/n Indeed, many places only implemented these mandates after other regulations, so it could be that the MARGINAL (i.e. additional) benefit of masks on top of other social distancing regulations was small, but that by themselves the benefits could be largerpic.twitter.com/fMMJ5Bwize

      2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      15/n Now, as ever it is hard to infer causal conclusions from studies like this (correlation=/=causation) BUT This is a careful, well-thought-out attempt to define the benefits associated with each intervention

      1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes
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    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      16/n For example, I'd say a reasonable conclusion is that the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders on top of other interventions is probably pretty small Conversely, the benefit associated with closing universities is probably pretty big

      3 replies 3 retweets 31 likes
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    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      17/n I should also note that I am not an expert in Bayesian statistical methods, so I might've missed something important in terms of limitations of the models used

      2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      18/n Another worthwhile point is that I think that this paper is pretty good, but as with everything I could be wrong Point out any errors I've missed!

      10:39 PM - 2 Aug 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 17 Likes
      • Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 Jason dinza JW "Good news is good, bad news is bad" Oliver Berkley Lynch Mona van der Smitte #stayathome 😷 💉 #staysafe Bob Bruce King Lukas Löwing
      4 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
        1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Aug 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

          19/n Thread worth reading on some more limitations of the studyhttps://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1290364813755863041?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
          What interventions are needed to stop #COVID19 epidemics? New paper on this. Wish I had time now to explain in detail why this paper & others are deeply flawed. Hope to do lengthy thread but will need to be very brief here today. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1290129568649498624 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
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        2. Kirsten Thommes‏ @KirstenThommes 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thank you for the discussion! I was wondering whether this approach adequatly accounts for the timing of policy measures and how relative changes of the dependent are taken into account. Is this approach compareble to diff in diff?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @KirstenThommes

          It makes some attempt to do so, and has sensitivity analyses addressing this point. Doesn't fully address the issue - they discuss this with relation to masks - but still a good attempt

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. raging_steel‏ @raging_steel 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Not a correction, just a question. Is there a general point that the later (on average) an intervention is introduced the more it risks overlapping early re-opening activities which will distort the impact to R?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. raging_steel‏ @raging_steel 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @raging_steel @GidMK

          E.g. in UK masks in shops timing is aligned with re-opening of bars and restaurants (where masks not required). Any benefit to R may get drowned out.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Mrinank Sharma‏ @MrinankSharma 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Thanks for the review (I'm one of authors)! Absolutely correct that it is hard to infer causation here, especially as the data we have is observational. 1/

          1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
        3. Mrinank Sharma‏ @MrinankSharma 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @MrinankSharma @GidMK

          We attempt to investigate the effect of unobserved factors by including interventions from the OxCGRT dataset and running the model when excluding some interventions that we collected ourselves. The low sensitivity increases our confidence in the effectiveness estimates 2/pic.twitter.com/hhfKnXkOpA

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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