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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      6/n So what did the paper find? Here's the main results. The further to the right an intervention is, the better it was at reducing Reff (and thus reducing the spread of COVID-19pic.twitter.com/58PFaenMpy

      5 replies 30 retweets 63 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      7/n To further explain, what this shows is the expected marginal benefit of each intervention So, for example, say you've already cancelled all gatherings over 100. Cancelling gatherings over 10 people will have an additional 36% reduction in the number of new cases

      3 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      8/n Two very interesting points: 1. Mask mandates for public spaces had negligible impact on the spread of COVID-19 2. Stay at home orders similarly didn't have much additional benefit

      5 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      9/n On the other hand, as the authors note, closing schools and universities appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the spread of COVID-19

      2 replies 11 retweets 44 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      10/n The authors then estimate the interventions required to bring Reff down to 1: - close schools - close universities - close some businesses - limit gatherings to 10 peoplepic.twitter.com/fNpfSmoGuB

      1 reply 17 retweets 41 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      11/n Some strengths of this trial are that they had multiple people rating the interventions and timing, the sample size was reasonably large, and they used a relatively objective outcome (Reff) to track efficacy

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      12/n Limitations are a bit more numerous, but two in particular I wanted to highlight: - Hard to dissociate some interventions - Some interventions not includedpic.twitter.com/eov5fAzfpc

      1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
      Show this thread
    8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      13/n In particular, they found that while mask regulations appeared to have minimal benefit, it was hard to dissociate mask mandates from other interventions, so this might not be indicative of a lack of efficacy

      3 replies 3 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
    9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      14/n Indeed, many places only implemented these mandates after other regulations, so it could be that the MARGINAL (i.e. additional) benefit of masks on top of other social distancing regulations was small, but that by themselves the benefits could be largerpic.twitter.com/fMMJ5Bwize

      2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
      Show this thread
    10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      15/n Now, as ever it is hard to infer causal conclusions from studies like this (correlation=/=causation) BUT This is a careful, well-thought-out attempt to define the benefits associated with each intervention

      1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      16/n For example, I'd say a reasonable conclusion is that the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders on top of other interventions is probably pretty small Conversely, the benefit associated with closing universities is probably pretty big

      8:42 PM - 2 Aug 2020
      • 3 Retweets
      • 31 Likes
      • Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 John Gordon MD (((Herid Fel))) dinza JW "Good news is good, bad news is bad" Oliver Loretta KristanPable Covid19SupportGrpSA Mona van der Smitte #stayathome 😷 💉 #staysafe Bob
      3 replies 3 retweets 31 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          17/n I should also note that I am not an expert in Bayesian statistical methods, so I might've missed something important in terms of limitations of the models used

          2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          18/n Another worthwhile point is that I think that this paper is pretty good, but as with everything I could be wrong Point out any errors I've missed!

          4 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Aug 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

          19/n Thread worth reading on some more limitations of the studyhttps://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1290364813755863041?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
          What interventions are needed to stop #COVID19 epidemics? New paper on this. Wish I had time now to explain in detail why this paper & others are deeply flawed. Hope to do lengthy thread but will need to be very brief here today. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1290129568649498624 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        5. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Corona Realism  🟢‏ @holmenkollin 2 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          Yes. Stay at home most probably has worsening effects. Schools have to be differentiated from universities, totally different SSE potential and hardly related. Also problematic: preselection of countries.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Jan Kulveit‏ @jankulveit 6 Aug 2020
          Replying to @holmenkollin @GidMK

          Would be nice to disentangle schools and unis, but in principle the approaches used can not distinguish between NPIs if they almost perfectly coincide everywhere. Needs further models based on different data

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. Magnus Gustavsson‏ @magnusgus 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @GidMK

          I don't get how stay at home can be neglegtable.? It's total isolation.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Aug 2020
          Replying to @magnusgus

          Think marginal benefit here. So stay-at-home ON TOP OF everything else is small. No place mandated stay-at-home without lots of other measures first

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. Show replies

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