This is a really careful, interesting, and thoughtful analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 and what works (i.e. masks, distancing etc) to control spread A quick review thread 1/nhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129v3 …
-
-
9/n On the other hand, as the authors note, closing schools and universities appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the spread of COVID-19
Show this thread -
10/n The authors then estimate the interventions required to bring Reff down to 1: - close schools - close universities - close some businesses - limit gatherings to 10 peoplepic.twitter.com/fNpfSmoGuB
Show this thread -
11/n Some strengths of this trial are that they had multiple people rating the interventions and timing, the sample size was reasonably large, and they used a relatively objective outcome (Reff) to track efficacy
Show this thread -
12/n Limitations are a bit more numerous, but two in particular I wanted to highlight: - Hard to dissociate some interventions - Some interventions not includedpic.twitter.com/eov5fAzfpc
Show this thread -
13/n In particular, they found that while mask regulations appeared to have minimal benefit, it was hard to dissociate mask mandates from other interventions, so this might not be indicative of a lack of efficacy
Show this thread -
14/n Indeed, many places only implemented these mandates after other regulations, so it could be that the MARGINAL (i.e. additional) benefit of masks on top of other social distancing regulations was small, but that by themselves the benefits could be largerpic.twitter.com/fMMJ5Bwize
Show this thread -
15/n Now, as ever it is hard to infer causal conclusions from studies like this (correlation=/=causation) BUT This is a careful, well-thought-out attempt to define the benefits associated with each intervention
Show this thread -
16/n For example, I'd say a reasonable conclusion is that the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders on top of other interventions is probably pretty small Conversely, the benefit associated with closing universities is probably pretty big
Show this thread -
17/n I should also note that I am not an expert in Bayesian statistical methods, so I might've missed something important in terms of limitations of the models used
Show this thread -
18/n Another worthwhile point is that I think that this paper is pretty good, but as with everything I could be wrong Point out any errors I've missed!
Show this thread -
19/n Thread worth reading on some more limitations of the studyhttps://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1290364813755863041?s=20 …
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.