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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      This is a really careful, interesting, and thoughtful analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 and what works (i.e. masks, distancing etc) to control spread A quick review thread 1/nhttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.28.20116129v3 …

      14 replies 113 retweets 245 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      2/n The paper does something relatively simple - marks when various policies were enacted in various places, and tracks deaths/cases of COVID-19 from that pointpic.twitter.com/hcyImyg23H

      2 replies 5 retweets 26 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      2.5/n This is the list of places Mostly European, with a few other locations around the worldpic.twitter.com/hdD4pFecDI

      1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      3/n The researchers then created two statistical models. The first inferred the reproductive number (Reff) at any point, using the cases/deaths data The second associated Reff with the measures put in place to get an idea of what workspic.twitter.com/layeqYbk3F

      1 reply 3 retweets 18 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      4/n (FYI - my Bayesian stats are a bit rusty, so please correct me if I'm misunderstanding, but that seems like the simplest explanation of what was done here)

      2 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      5/n Quick epi reminder - the Reff of a disease is the number of people that each infected person will go on to infect, on average, at any moment in time This is important, because it's what the results were presented in

      1 reply 1 retweet 17 likes
      Show this thread
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

      6/n So what did the paper find? Here's the main results. The further to the right an intervention is, the better it was at reducing Reff (and thus reducing the spread of COVID-19pic.twitter.com/58PFaenMpy

      8:37 PM - 2 Aug 2020
      • 30 Retweets
      • 63 Likes
      • Anna Rotkirch Jan Kulveit Arun Mukherjee Heidi Garand leftblank LucianoCardamone Leesa 'soapy clean hands' Klich, MSc 🇨🇦 Sean Murphy Nicholas Conway
      5 replies 30 retweets 63 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          7/n To further explain, what this shows is the expected marginal benefit of each intervention So, for example, say you've already cancelled all gatherings over 100. Cancelling gatherings over 10 people will have an additional 36% reduction in the number of new cases

          3 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          8/n Two very interesting points: 1. Mask mandates for public spaces had negligible impact on the spread of COVID-19 2. Stay at home orders similarly didn't have much additional benefit

          5 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          9/n On the other hand, as the authors note, closing schools and universities appears to have had a disproportionate impact on the spread of COVID-19

          2 replies 11 retweets 44 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          10/n The authors then estimate the interventions required to bring Reff down to 1: - close schools - close universities - close some businesses - limit gatherings to 10 peoplepic.twitter.com/fNpfSmoGuB

          1 reply 17 retweets 41 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          11/n Some strengths of this trial are that they had multiple people rating the interventions and timing, the sample size was reasonably large, and they used a relatively objective outcome (Reff) to track efficacy

          1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          12/n Limitations are a bit more numerous, but two in particular I wanted to highlight: - Hard to dissociate some interventions - Some interventions not includedpic.twitter.com/eov5fAzfpc

          1 reply 2 retweets 20 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          13/n In particular, they found that while mask regulations appeared to have minimal benefit, it was hard to dissociate mask mandates from other interventions, so this might not be indicative of a lack of efficacy

          3 replies 3 retweets 32 likes
          Show this thread
        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          14/n Indeed, many places only implemented these mandates after other regulations, so it could be that the MARGINAL (i.e. additional) benefit of masks on top of other social distancing regulations was small, but that by themselves the benefits could be largerpic.twitter.com/fMMJ5Bwize

          2 replies 3 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          15/n Now, as ever it is hard to infer causal conclusions from studies like this (correlation=/=causation) BUT This is a careful, well-thought-out attempt to define the benefits associated with each intervention

          1 reply 3 retweets 16 likes
          Show this thread
        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          16/n For example, I'd say a reasonable conclusion is that the marginal benefit of stay-at-home orders on top of other interventions is probably pretty small Conversely, the benefit associated with closing universities is probably pretty big

          3 replies 3 retweets 31 likes
          Show this thread
        12. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          17/n I should also note that I am not an expert in Bayesian statistical methods, so I might've missed something important in terms of limitations of the models used

          2 replies 1 retweet 14 likes
          Show this thread
        13. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 2 Aug 2020

          18/n Another worthwhile point is that I think that this paper is pretty good, but as with everything I could be wrong Point out any errors I've missed!

          4 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
          Show this thread
        14. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 3 Aug 2020

          Health Nerd Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick

          19/n Thread worth reading on some more limitations of the studyhttps://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1290364813755863041?s=20 …

          Health Nerd added,

          A Marm Kilpatrick @DiseaseEcology
          What interventions are needed to stop #COVID19 epidemics? New paper on this. Wish I had time now to explain in detail why this paper & others are deeply flawed. Hope to do lengthy thread but will need to be very brief here today. https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1290129568649498624 …
          Show this thread
          3 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
          Show this thread
        15. End of conversation

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