Current COVID-19 deaths:
Victoria, pop 6.4 mil: 123
Sweden, pop 10.23 mil: 5,743



https://twitter.com/Adam_Creighton/status/1289843530903347200 …
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Nothing about the median age of death in Sweden being 82 as a direct consequence of them failing to protect care homes (a mistake we're now making despite months of warning)?pic.twitter.com/o5d1V2jr7i
We can predict that if daily deaths peak when cumulative deaths 3700/e~1400 (because they tend to follow a Gompertz curve).
Unfortunately this comparison is horrifically flawed just like the pro-Swedeners. Comparing a state/province with a country, with vastly different population densities in the hotspots, and assuming economic data is up to date when it lags by multiple months.
For the millionth time, the Swedes explicitly ignored economic motivations adopted this strategy. And, again, their IFR is ‘lower’ than Australia’s.
Probably as much as 3x lower. You did an IFR metanalysis, you’re supposed to know this.
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