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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      Health Nerd Retweeted Nathan Stall

      This paper published in JAMA just won't go away, so I thought I'd do a brief thread on why it says virtually nothing about masks for COVID-19 1/nhttps://twitter.com/NathanStall/status/1287832315004170240 …

      Health Nerd added,

      Nathan StallVerified account @NathanStall
      Ontario's initial resistance to universally mask #LTC home workers—something not done until April 8th—was an unforgivable #COVIDー19 failure. Research from MGB shows how effective masking was in decreasing healthcare worker infections: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768533 … H/T @dementiarehab https://twitter.com/ViciousAssyrian/status/1245139764111708160 … pic.twitter.com/9JlH5BFJsZ
      1 reply 6 retweets 24 likes
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    2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      2/n The paper is here, with that infamous graphic https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768533 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      3/n What did the authors do? Well, it was a really very simple paper (published as a research letter, so <1,000 words!) They looked at how many workers tested positive for COVID-19 in hospitals before and after mask wearing became mandatory

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      4/n Prior to the mandatory mask-wearing, the percent positive - i.e. the percent of people who tested positive to COVID-19 out of those who were tested - appeared to be increasing After mask-wearing, it appeared to decrease instead Conclusion - masks work!pic.twitter.com/7xVyjsd1Np

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      5/n But, some things immediately jump out when you read the paper that make it...worrying Firstly, the denominator is really weird. They divided by HCWs who tested positive that day+HCWs who NEVER tested positive...any daypic.twitter.com/sHtCWxz9aW

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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    6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      6/n But presumably the number of HCWs who NEVER tested positive ANY day would always increase, unless the number of tests is fixed (which it presumably isn't) This would then mean that, over time, the % positive should decrease naturally

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

      7/n Then, another snag. The authors have drawn some lines on a graph, but not provided any statistical tests to see if these lines mean anything They report USING the R^2 value, but don't actually write it down! Not idealpic.twitter.com/UNjOmPs3Me

      8:20 PM - 27 Jul 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 7 Likes
      • Dr. Vakzimilian Harry Hong Jan Soroczynski Brett Rann Pog Chain Reaction she/her/hers Bryan P. White, MS, MPH loki maelorin 🏳️‍⚧️🏳️‍🌈 💉💉 (they)
      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          8/n This XKCD comic makes this problem clear very elegantlypic.twitter.com/a5NGp47iPB

          1 reply 6 retweets 23 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          9/n On top of all this, the authors report that the case number for COVID-19 continued to increase in Massachusetts (where the study was done), but don't discuss the PERCENT POSITIVE which is what this study is looking at

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        4. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          10/n This is an issue, because if the state has similar trends in % positive as the hospital, then it's likely that what's seen in this study is simply reflective of the COVID-19 epidemic more broadly

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        5. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          11/n Here are the % positive graphs side-by-side They look, to me, remarkably similar Maybe it wasn't the masks after all...pic.twitter.com/Rt9BVZL4eW

          1 reply 1 retweet 6 likes
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        6. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          11/n In addition, there are some other worries with the paper Because it's a research letter, they can't really go into confounding, but they do mention it as an issuepic.twitter.com/PkfzwYQOdE

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        7. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          12/n Problem is, confounding in this study isn't just a small problem - it's an enormous, gaping hole in the reliability of the results

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        8. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          13/n What if people were wearing masks before the study started? What if the population of HCWs changed during the pandemic? What if reporting of tests changed? What if they simply DID MORE TESTS? So many problems, no answers at all

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        9. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          14/n To some extent, it's hard to blame the authors for these issues, but it shows why you probably shouldn't report on research letters - they just don't have enough information to make a balanced judgement

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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        10. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          15/n At the absolute minimum for this study, you need an adequate control group to even begin to understand what these results might mean Without that, about all we can say is that they made a pretty graph with lines on it🤷‍♂️

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        11. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 27 Jul 2020

          Note: all of this is independent of whether you like masks! I'm not saying masks don't work, just that this study says nothing about the question

          0 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
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        12. End of conversation

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