A new paper is out exploring the impact of heterogeneity on the herd immunity threshold. It explores two types of heterogeneity - variation in susceptibility - and variation in contact rate.https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1 …
I think this actually explains the difference between observed attack rates and these very theoretical studies. If you assume individual's infectiousness varies over time, then the impact of heterogeneity might make little difference over time
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Is it not better to view these papers as putting a lowest possible bound on rate needed for immunity rather than trying to predict it?
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Yes - I think that is a reasonable interpretation. I worry that the cherry-pickers will not take it this way.
End of conversation
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