Many replies to his tweet link to tweets by @AdamJKucharski that make it clear why IFR of 0.1% for flu is overestimate. For even more detailed description of flu IFR see @GidMK piece here:https://medium.com/@gidmk/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-than-influenza-69b6628e69f2 …
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This piece states: "go to the CDC’s website, and ... you end up with a rate of 0.1–0.2%." I appreciate this is IFR for symptomatic disease, but I fail to see why my "0.1%" global seasonal flu IFR is so shocking. The IFR in the US is expected to be lower than the global one ...
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The piece explains in more detail, but it's just not an apples-to-apples comparison. If you wanted to make one with the inferred CFR of symptomatic influenza of ~0.1%, you have to a) infer deaths from COVID-19 missed by undercounting and b) exclude asymptomatic COVID-19 cases
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The CDC gives 'symptomatic illnesses' and 'deaths' (not CFRs/IFRs). 2x symptomatics still leads to around ~0.1%s. The influenza IFR in the US is likely to be well below the global one. I did never equate seasonal flu and COVID19 IFRs, and I find this whole discussion irritating
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Sure, but those are inferred from ICD-10 coding and hospitalizations, which is the other issue that has been pointed out. And I'm not sure that's true, why would the US be orders of magnitude lower than, say, China?
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Not orders of magnitude, all subtle, but influenza mortality is worst in places with poor healthcare and no vaccination programmes, e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa.
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If it's not orders of magnitude, then I'm not sure I see your point. Also, there are now several areas of the US with an IFR WITHOUT inferred mortality (i.e. just using official death counts) for COVID-19 above 1%.
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The discussion was about IFRs of seasonal flu. I may have misunderstood but my point was that IFRs of seasonal flu did not vary by orders across the world but more subtly so, with among the lowest IFRs being the ones in the US.
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I'm not sure that's entirely true, but I was under the impression the discussion was about comparability of influenza CFR and COVID-19 IFR. Honestly, it's all explained much better in the blog
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What blog, this is all so confusing ...
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Health Nerd Retweeted A Marm Kilpatrick
Health Nerd added,
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Prof Francois Balloux Retweeted Prof Francois Balloux
The Medium piece ... I replied to that.https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1287182699992616961 …
Prof Francois Balloux added,
Prof Francois BallouxVerified account @BallouxFrancoisReplying to @DiseaseEcology @AdamJKucharski @GidMKThis piece states: "go to the CDC’s website, and ... you end up with a rate of 0.1–0.2%." I appreciate this is IFR for symptomatic disease, but I fail to see why my "0.1%" global seasonal flu IFR is so shocking. The IFR in the US is expected to be lower than the global one ...2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
But that doesn't really address the piece at all...
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