Also worth noting that this infection rate implies an IFR of ~0.53% in the city, even without accounting for right-censoring, which has similarly worrisome implications for the disease
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There are studies from Lombardy and Queens, NYC with serprevalence of > 60 %. That was my question - is this consistent with the possibility of herd immunity being achieved at 10 to 20 %?
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If herd immunity at 30% was a thing, then seroprevalence level would converge towards 30% sooner or later. The fact that it already *exceeds* 70% in a town indicates that herd immunity even at 70% did not occur without overshooting.
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The people pushing the hidden immunity hypothesis point to Sweden’s declining case numbers: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa … I don’t understand how Sweden has managed to achieve such low recent case numbers
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I think their economy has tanked because people have stopped going out. That might be part of the story
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Are there scientists seriously suggesting 80% are fully immune? My take from that narrative, is that maybe only 20% are susceptible to illness beyond asymptomatic or a mild ILI...not that they are fully resistant to infection.
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Wow! Ecological fallacy? Iquitos is the largest city in the world that cannot be reached by road and 71% infected!!!! And 73% women, 58% men. WTF! Sex distribution in Iquitos is 86% female , 14% male

In Spain we use to say: te agarras a un clavo ardiendo.


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