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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
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@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Jul 2020

    Health Nerd Retweeted Christian Althaus

    This is not unexpected, but still a big deal. If these results are correct, the idea that we can reach herd immunity to COVID-19 with less than 70% of the population infected is well and truly dead in the waterhttps://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1285473206657114112 …

    Health Nerd added,

    Christian AlthausVerified account @C_Althaus
    Not much room for that “dark matter” (aka hidden immunity) anymore ... https://twitter.com/isabelrodbar/status/1285456607065681921 …
    12:34 AM - 21 Jul 2020
    • 13 Retweets
    • 44 Likes
    • john mcclean Guffy Harry Hong Max Nisen Mum-la 💙 I'll be eating ALL the cakes Morticia, the Tall transplantrockstar AbbeBusoni
    5 replies 13 retweets 44 likes
      1. Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 21 Jul 2020

        Also worth noting that this infection rate implies an IFR of ~0.53% in the city, even without accounting for right-censoring, which has similarly worrisome implications for the disease

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Ono no Komachi‏ @OnoNoKomachi1 21 Jul 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        There are studies from Lombardy and Queens, NYC with serprevalence of > 60 %. That was my question - is this consistent with the possibility of herd immunity being achieved at 10 to 20 %?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. JH // from fairest tweeps we desire increase‏ @jhan2qt 21 Jul 2020
        Replying to @OnoNoKomachi1 @GidMK

        If herd immunity at 30% was a thing, then seroprevalence level would converge towards 30% sooner or later. The fact that it already *exceeds* 70% in a town indicates that herd immunity even at 70% did not occur without overshooting.

        0 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Nurit Baytch‏ @NuritBaytch 21 Jul 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        The people pushing the hidden immunity hypothesis point to Sweden’s declining case numbers: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa … I don’t understand how Sweden has managed to achieve such low recent case numbers

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. Count Sheep 🦇 🏳️‍🌈 💉 💉‏ @maddy_jones15 21 Jul 2020
        Replying to @NuritBaytch @GidMK

        I think their economy has tanked because people have stopped going out. That might be part of the story

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Dave‏ @davecoghlan 21 Jul 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Are there scientists seriously suggesting 80% are fully immune? My take from that narrative, is that maybe only 20% are susceptible to illness beyond asymptomatic or a mild ILI...not that they are fully resistant to infection.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Show replies
      1. Los Profetas del Apocalipsis‏ @del_profetas 21 Jul 2020
        Replying to @GidMK

        Wow! Ecological fallacy? Iquitos is the largest city in the world that cannot be reached by road and 71% infected!!!! And 73% women, 58% men. WTF! Sex distribution in Iquitos is 86% female , 14% male 😲😲 In Spain we use to say: te agarras a un clavo ardiendo. 😂😂😂

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