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GidMK's profile
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Health Nerd
Verified account
@GidMK

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Health NerdVerified account

@GidMK

Epidemiologist. Writer (Guardian, Observer etc). "Well known research trouble-maker". PhDing at @UoW Host of @senscipod Email gidmk.healthnerd@gmail.com he/him

Sydney, New South Wales
theguardian.com/profile/gideon…
Joined November 2015

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    1. Eric Topol‏Verified account @EricTopol 20 Jul 2020

      CovidUSA, today In review of hospitalizations (very close to peak pandemic) and deaths, the slope of rise for the latter is encouraging. They track, but fatality curve is flatter. Unclear if it's due to better treatment, younger patients, or other reasons. But it is good to seepic.twitter.com/y5usKMABma

      The COVID Tracking Project
      27 replies 111 retweets 370 likes
    2. Stephan J. Guyenet‏ @whsource 20 Jul 2020
      Replying to @EricTopol @COVID19Tracking

      .@youyanggu's model predicts that the peak in deaths is probably going to be much smaller this time, and is very unlikely to reach the same level as the first peak. https://covid19-projections.com/#current-us-projections …pic.twitter.com/kVDJDPgzAI

      1 reply 3 retweets 11 likes
    3. aeon‏ @AeonCoin 20 Jul 2020
      Replying to @whsource @EricTopol and

      Well that's not really a function of anything in the model as much as he simply assumes that IFR declines over time.

      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Health Nerd‏Verified account @GidMK 20 Jul 2020
      Replying to @AeonCoin @whsource and

      Yes I'm not sure these assumptions are reasonable. Would be better to base any IFR changes on predictions of hospital capacity or age ranges infected rather than a blunt overall reduction like thispic.twitter.com/aZNq0bcDhI

      5:01 PM - 20 Jul 2020
      • 6 Likes
      • Stephan J. Guyenet Jesse Ventura Dr Rob Whitehurst Atomsk's Sanakan aeon Nicholas Bauer, PhD 👨‍🔬🔬
      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. aeon‏ @AeonCoin 20 Jul 2020
          Replying to @GidMK @whsource and

          aeon Retweeted Marc Bevand

          Done for Florida here. Age data isn't available everywherehttps://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1284544737110683648 …

          aeon added,

          Marc Bevand @zorinaq
          New forecast: by Aug 1 Florida will report 130-290 #covid19 deaths per day (7-day moving avg) This is based on applying age-stratified CFR adjusted for right censoring to the state's line list. My model's open source: https://github.com/mbevand/florida-covid19-line-list-data … & has great track record... 1/N pic.twitter.com/eJ1NRmbCIT
          Show this thread
          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Dr Rob Whitehurst‏ @OYCar 20 Jul 2020
          Replying to @AeonCoin @GidMK and

          Total Deaths Current infected Jul 10 212k 6.9% Jul 15 227k 7.5% Jul 19 214k ⬇️ 8.4% ⬆️ Infections are estimated from observed deaths so more deaths now implies more infections now. But low IFR requires fewer future infections & deaths.pic.twitter.com/90rxI8dN4o

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies

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